Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.
With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.
But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.
There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.
The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.
Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.
Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.
The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.
Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
Argentina's government reform bill officially takes effect: granting the president special powers in areas such as administration
On the 8th, the Argentine government promulgated the "Foundations and Starting Points for Argentine Freedom" comprehensive bill and a package of fiscal measures, marking the official entry into force of the government reform bill. According to the official gazette of the Argentine government, Argentine President Milley, Chief Cabinet Minister Guillermo Francos and Economy Minister Luis Caputo jointly signed Decrees No. 592 and No. 593 to promulgate these two new reform measures. The comprehensive bill declared Argentina to enter a one-year public emergency in the administrative, economic, financial and energy fields, and granted the president special powers in these fields. It also includes the relaxation of economic regulations, labor reforms and the implementation of a large-scale investment incentive system. The package of fiscal measures involves anti-money laundering, tax deferral, tariffs, re-imposition of high-salary income tax and reduction of personal property taxes. On June 28, after six months of negotiations, the two reform bills were finally passed by the Argentine Congress.
Google may bring Google Wallet for Indian users
Google Wallet can help you store your IDs, driving license, loyalty cards, concert tickets and more. You can also store your payment cards and use tap to pay to pay anywhere Google Pay is accepted. Google wallet is available in various countries but Google never launched it in India. Google let indian users stick with the Gpay which facilitates UPI payments. Tap to pay is not part of it. Also we can not store things such as IDs and Passes in indian version of Gpay. This might change and Google may launch Google Wallet in India. With the recent version of Google Wallet and Google Play Services, Google has added some flags and code which indicate that Google is working on something for Indian users regarding wallet. The first change I noticed recently when going through the Google Play Services apk was addition of two new flags Both flags are part of com.google.android.gms.pay package in the Google Play Services. This package contains all the flags for features of Gpay/Wallet. Google does server side flipping of flags to enable/disable features for users. So both these flags doesn't really provide any info about what features enabling these flags is going to bring. But the point here is that Google Wallet is not launched in India so why Google added these flags inside Play Services ? The answer could be that Google may be working on bringing Google Wallet to India. It can enable tap to pay, store payments and various other features for Indian users which we don't have in the current Gpay for India. I found similar flags in the analysis Google Wallet APK - These flags are also disabled by default. But this is again a clear indication of Google working towards something for Indian users. In both cases, enabling the flags doesn't bring anything noticeable UI or feature because there is nothing much added besides flags. Google has dogfood/testing versions internally, so the code will show up slowly in upcoming versions. The last piece of code I found is also from Google Play Services. In case you don't know, Google was working on Digilocker integration in the Google Files app which was supposed to bring your digital document inside the app such as driving license, COVID certificates, aadhar card. But Google has ditched the effort of bringing these features and they removed the "Important" tab (where digilocker was supposed to be integrated) from the Google Files app completely. So things are going to change and here is how. This is the code which I found in the Google Play Services - So the word "PASS" along with PAN, DRIVERS LICENCE, VACC CERTIFICATE & AADHAR CARD, is clear indication of the possibility of Google adding support for these directly through Google Wallet using Digilocker, just like Samsung Pass does it. This code is not old as I have checked older beta versions of Play Services where this code is not present. Here is a string which was added in a previous beta version a few weeks ago but I completely ignored it because it didn't make any sense without flags and the other code - This addition was surprising because there was nothing regarding digilocker before in the Play Services. In the words "pay_valuable", the "pay" to Wallet/Gpay and "valuable" refers to the things like Passes, loyalty cards and transit cards. Since we are talking about digilocker, these "valuable" are driving license, vaccination certificate, PAN card and Aadhar card which can be store in Google Wallet after digilocker integration. That's all about it. We will know more about it in upcoming app updates or maybe Google can itself annouce something about this.
Turkey has cancelled a 40 percent tariff on Chinese cars, and BYD has invested $1 billion to build a factory
Byd has grown rapidly in China over the past few years, becoming the country's best-selling car brand and the world's biggest selling electric car brand. Byd opened its first electric car factory in Southeast Asia on Thursday in Thailand. Byd also took over a former Ford Motor Co. plant in Brazil and has been looking for a site for a Mexican plant. Europe's first automotive plant is under construction in Hungary. Byd's second-quarter sales jumped to a record 982,747 vehicles, up more than 40 per cent from a year earlier. Although the company's sales in Europe have been sluggish so far, it is making a big marketing push in the region to replace Volkswagen as the main automotive sponsor of the European Championship. According to a recent Fortune report, officials said that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to announce the agreement for BYD to build the plant at a signing ceremony on Monday in Manisa province, where the plant will be built. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Byd representatives declined to comment. Turkish Industry and Technology Minister Mohamed Fatih Kassir said in May that he was in advanced discussions with BYD and Chery on investment in Turkey. The new plant will improve BYD's access to the European Union, as Turkey has a customs union agreement with the EU. The European Union this week announced temporary punitive tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, with BYD imposing an additional 17.4 percent tariff on top of the existing 10 percent tariff. Other Chinese carmakers have been hit with higher tariffs. Investing in Turkey would strengthen the presence of Chinese carmakers in Europe at a time of escalating trade tensions.
Could a $600 billion funding gap crush the AI industry?
On July 5, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates appeared on the Next Big Idea podcast to discuss his vision for Superhuman artificial intelligence and technological progress. At the same time, it said that the enthusiasm of the AI market is far more than the Internet bubble. Gates believes that the current threshold for entry in the AI field is very low, and the entire market is in a fever period, AI startups can easily get hundreds of millions of dollars in financing, and even have raised $6 billion (about 43.734 billion yuan) in cash for a company. "Never before has so much capital poured into a new area, and the entire AI market has fallen into a 'frenzy' in terms of market capitalization and valuation, which dwarfs the frenzy of the Internet and automotive periods in history." Gates said. At this stage, the rapid development of the artificial intelligence industry is a veritable gold industry, and Nvidia's market value is therefore soaring, and the total market value reached 3.34 trillion US dollars on June 18 local time, surpassing Microsoft and Apple in one fell fell, becoming the world's most valuable listed enterprise. But in fact, doubts about the field of artificial intelligence have also risen one after another and have never stopped.
Hollywood's strongest supporting actor has been launched, AI is not far from subverting "Dreamworks"?
As a major city in the United States and even the global film industry, Hollywood has gathered a large number of veteran film and television production companies, including Universal Pictures, Warner Bros., Paramount Pictures, Disney Pictures, MGM Pictures, etc. In addition, new streaming forces such as Netflix have also entered in recent years. When the new generation of technology represented by generative AI sweeps the world, the movie "dream factory" is also experiencing a transformative moment. In early May last year, the US film and television industry launched a series of strikes that lasted for five months. Two labor disputes, led by the Writers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild, have caused the worst industry disruption since the 2020 pandemic, forcing many film projects and TV shows to halt or delay production. The strike has been costly, with Kevin Klowden, chief global strategist at the Milken Institute think tank, estimating it has cost the U.S. economy more than $5 billion, affecting not only film and television production companies, but also surrounding service industries such as catering, trucking and dry cleaning. One of the main conflicts between labor and management is that many actors and screenwriters have expressed concerns about "unemployment" due to the "invasion" of artificial intelligence. Luo Chenya has been working in the film and television industry for more than 10 years, including scriptwriter, documentary photographer and assistant director. She told the first financial reporter that after ChatGPT became popular, she also tried to use chatbots to assist script creation. "I can talk to the AI about my ideas and ideas, and it will help analyze and refine my ideas, and even make some suggestions that I think are quite effective." But on the execution level, the idea of writing it down into a very specific scene, character action, it doesn't really help me." Luo Chenya said that AI still needs more training and evolution in script writing, but the ability to present images is amazing. "AI can directly generate images, which can indeed save labor to a great extent, and may even replace photographers in the future." In post-production, AI can beautify images and modify flaws." A place to be fought over Earlier this year, OpenAI released the Vincennes video model Sora on its website, which can create videos up to a minute long, generating complex scenes with multiple characters, specific types of movement, and precise theme and background details. In addition to being able to generate video from text, the model can also generate video from still images, precisely animating the image content. "Vincennes Video can quickly produce high-quality video content, greatly improving production efficiency, and generative AI helps to improve the analysis of user preferences and personalized recommendations, and enhance the attractiveness of content." These technologies will disrupt traditional video production and content distribution models, and media companies need to adapt and change their operating models." Wang Haoyu, CEO of Mairui Asset Management, said in an interview with the first financial reporter. For this reason, Hollywood giants have long made big bets and stepped up their layout.