Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.
With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.
But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.
There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.
The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.
Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.
Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.
The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.
Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
UAE insurance sector continued to grow in Q4-23: CBUAE
The UAE insurance sector continued to grow in Q4-2023, as reflected by increase in the gross written premiums. As of year-end, the number of licensed insurance companies in the UAE remained at 60, according to the Central Bank of the UAE's (CBUAE) Quarterly Economic Review (Q4-2023). The insurance sector comprised 23 traditional national companies, 10 Takaful national and 27 foreign companies, while the number of insurance related professions remained at 491. The review on insurance sector structure and activity showed that the gross written premium increased by 12.7% Y-o-Y in Q4 2023 to AED 53.2 billion, mostly due to an increase in health insurance premiums by 16.5% Y-o-Y and an increase in property and liability insurance premiums by 18.9% Y-o-Y, while the insurance of persons and fund accumulation premiums decreased by 12.4% Y-o-Y, resulting primarily from decrease in individual life premiums. Gross paid claims of all types of insurance plans increased by 12.8% Y-o-Y to AED 31.1 billion at the end of 2023. This was mainly driven by the increase in claims paid in health insurance by 16.9% Y-o-Y and increase in paid claims in property and liability insurance by 10.9% Y-o-Y, partially offset by the decline in claims paid in insurance of persons and fund accumulation by 2.8% Y-o-Y. The total technical provisions of all types of insurance increased by 8.4% Y-o-Y to AED 74.4 billion in Q4 2023 compared to AED68.6 billion in Q4 2022. The volume of invested assets in the insurance sector amounted to AED 76 billion (60.4% of total assets) in Q4 2023 compared to AED 71.4 billion (59.4% of total assets) in Q4 2022. The retention ratio of written insurance premiums for all types of insurance was 52.9 % (AED 28.1 billion) in Q4 2023, compared to 54.9% (AED 25.9 billion) at the end of 2022. The UAE insurance sector remained well capitalized in terms of early warning ratios and risk assessment. Own funds to minimum capital requirement ratio increased to 335.7% in Q4 2023, compared to 309.3% at the end of 2022, due to an increase in own funds eligible to meet the minimum capital requirements. Also, own funds to solvency capital requirement ratio rose to 221% in Q4 2023 compared to 208.5% in Q4 2022, due to an increase in own funds eligible to meet solvency capital requirements. Finally, own funds to minimum guarantee fund ratio reached to 316.3% at the end of 2023 down from 314.6% a year earlier, due to higher eligible funds to meet minimum guarantee funds. In terms of profitability, the net total profit to net written premiums increased to 6.5% in Q4 2023, compared to 2.9% at the end of 2022. The return on average assets increased to 0.3% in Q4 2023 compared to the 0.1% at the of the previous year.
Enhance Your Photos With NASA's Sharpening Technique
Incredible space photos like those from NASA don't look as stunning straight out of the telescope. They need significant processing, and a crucial part of that is sharpening. Coming to you from Unmesh Dinda with PiXimperfect, this fascinating video explores the APF-R plugin, developed by award-winning astrophotographer Christoph Kaltseis. APF-R stands for Absolute Point of Focus, and it's designed to enhance photo details without creating halos or artifacts. This technology has been used by space agencies with telescopes like the James Webb, and now, you can use it in Photoshop. The plugin allows for non-destructive editing, meaning you can adjust the radius and detail level without permanently altering your image. This feature is crucial for astrophotography, where preserving original details is vital. The video shows how APF-R compares to Photoshop's built-in sharpening tools. The plugin offers multiple rendering methods, each suited for different types of images. For instance, the "Center Weighted" method provides a balanced sharpening effect without making the image look overprocessed. Dinda explains how to fine-tune these settings to achieve the best results, making it clear why this plugin is a game-changer for photographers looking to enhance their images with precision. One notable feature of APF-R is its ability to work with different image types. The video demonstrates how the plugin enhances not just space photos but also landscapes and portraits. For portraits, APF-R can bring out skin textures and eye details without creating the unwanted halos that traditional sharpening methods often produce. Dinda also shows how to combine APF-R with other Photoshop tools, like Smart Sharpen, for even better results. This versatility makes APF-R a valuable addition to any photographer's toolkit. The plugin's cost is $50, which Dinda considers a bargain given its advanced capabilities. There's also a Creative Bundle subscription that includes APF-R and 20 other tools, offering great value for those looking to expand their editing options. Dinda provides discount codes in the video description, making this sophisticated tool more accessible. Check out the video above for the full rundown from Dinda.
China's Beijing plans to allow self-driving cars to run online ride-hailing services
Beijing self-driving cars on the road will usher in legislative protection. Recently, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology solicited comments on the "Beijing Autonomous Vehicle Regulations (Draft for Comment)". The city intends to support the use of autonomous vehicles for urban public electric bus passenger transport, online car booking, car rental and other urban travel services. In addition to application scenarios, the draft for comments also standardizes autonomous driving innovation from many aspects, such as whether there is a driver, how to deal with traffic problems, and so on. The release of the opinion draft also means that the commercialization of automatic driving is accelerating, and perhaps soon we will be able to experience the convenience of automatic driving. In addition, the accelerated pace of autonomous driving, and whether it will have an impact on the taxi and traditional network car industry, it is also worth thinking about.
Hollywood's strongest supporting actor has been launched, AI is not far from subverting "Dreamworks"?
As a major city in the United States and even the global film industry, Hollywood has gathered a large number of veteran film and television production companies, including Universal Pictures, Warner Bros., Paramount Pictures, Disney Pictures, MGM Pictures, etc. In addition, new streaming forces such as Netflix have also entered in recent years. When the new generation of technology represented by generative AI sweeps the world, the movie "dream factory" is also experiencing a transformative moment. In early May last year, the US film and television industry launched a series of strikes that lasted for five months. Two labor disputes, led by the Writers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild, have caused the worst industry disruption since the 2020 pandemic, forcing many film projects and TV shows to halt or delay production. The strike has been costly, with Kevin Klowden, chief global strategist at the Milken Institute think tank, estimating it has cost the U.S. economy more than $5 billion, affecting not only film and television production companies, but also surrounding service industries such as catering, trucking and dry cleaning. One of the main conflicts between labor and management is that many actors and screenwriters have expressed concerns about "unemployment" due to the "invasion" of artificial intelligence. Luo Chenya has been working in the film and television industry for more than 10 years, including scriptwriter, documentary photographer and assistant director. She told the first financial reporter that after ChatGPT became popular, she also tried to use chatbots to assist script creation. "I can talk to the AI about my ideas and ideas, and it will help analyze and refine my ideas, and even make some suggestions that I think are quite effective." But on the execution level, the idea of writing it down into a very specific scene, character action, it doesn't really help me." Luo Chenya said that AI still needs more training and evolution in script writing, but the ability to present images is amazing. "AI can directly generate images, which can indeed save labor to a great extent, and may even replace photographers in the future." In post-production, AI can beautify images and modify flaws." A place to be fought over Earlier this year, OpenAI released the Vincennes video model Sora on its website, which can create videos up to a minute long, generating complex scenes with multiple characters, specific types of movement, and precise theme and background details. In addition to being able to generate video from text, the model can also generate video from still images, precisely animating the image content. "Vincennes Video can quickly produce high-quality video content, greatly improving production efficiency, and generative AI helps to improve the analysis of user preferences and personalized recommendations, and enhance the attractiveness of content." These technologies will disrupt traditional video production and content distribution models, and media companies need to adapt and change their operating models." Wang Haoyu, CEO of Mairui Asset Management, said in an interview with the first financial reporter. For this reason, Hollywood giants have long made big bets and stepped up their layout.
South Korean government decides not to punish interns who resign
South Korea's Minister of Health and Welfare Cho Kyu-hong said at a press conference on the 8th local time that after comprehensively considering the suggestions of frontline interns and the situation on the front line of medical care, the government decided that from that day on, all interns and residents who resigned would not be given administrative sanctions such as revoking their medical licenses. Cho Kyu-hong also said that for interns and residents who have returned to work and those who have resigned and are preparing to re-register for internship courses in September, the government will make special cases to try to minimize the internship gap and not affect the relevant doctors from obtaining specialist medical licenses. Cho Kyu-hong said that the government believes that in order to minimize the diagnosis and treatment gaps for critically ill and emergency patients and ensure the smooth training process of interns and residents, it is in the public interest, so it has made a decision not to punish interns and residents who resigned. It is hoped that major hospitals will complete the resignation processing of doctors who have not returned to work before July 15 and determine the scale of vacancies. Previously, large general hospitals in South Korea, such as Seoul National University Hospital, Yonsei University Severance Hospital, and Seoul Asan Medical Center, suspended or limited their medical services in an effort to cancel all penalties against interns and residents.