Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.
With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.
But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.
There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.
The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.
Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.
Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.
The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.
Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
Carlsberg to buy Britvic for $4.2 billion
Carlsberg to buy Britvic for 1,315p per share Carlsberg will also buy out Marston's from brewing joint venture Danish brewer plans to create integrated beverage business in UK Shares in Carlsberg, Britvic, Marston's all rise July 8 (Reuters) - Carlsberg (CARLb.CO), opens new tab has agreed to buy British soft drinks maker Britvic (BVIC.L), opens new tab for 3.3 billion pounds ($4.23 billion), a move the Danish brewer said would forge a UK beverage "powerhouse" and that sent both companies' shares higher. Carlsberg clinched the takeover with a sweetened bid of 1,315 pence per share - comprising cash and a special dividend of 25 pence a share - after the British company rejected 1,250 pence per share last month. The acquisition will create value for shareholders, contribute to growth and forge a combined beer and soft drink company that is unique in the UK, CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen told investors on a conference call. "With this transaction we are creating a UK powerhouse," he said. He brushed off concerns from some analysts about integration risks, saying Carlsberg has a strong track record of running beer and soft drink businesses in several markets. Soft drinks already make up 16% of Carlsberg's volumes. COST SAVINGS As drinkers in some markets ditch beer for spirits or cut back on drinking altogether, brewers have looked to broaden their portfolio into new categories like hard seltzer, canned cocktails and cider, as well as zero-alcohol brews. Britvic sells non-alcoholic drinks in Britain, Ireland, Brazil and other international markets such as France, the Middle East and Asia. Carlsberg said the deal will deliver a number of benefits, including cost and efficiency savings worth 100 million pounds ($128 million) over five years as it takes advantage of common procurement, production and distribution networks. It will also see Carlsberg take over Britvic's bottling agreement with PepsiCo (PEP.O), opens new tab. Carlsberg already bottles PepsiCo drinks in several markets and there is scope to add more geographies in future, Aarup-Andersen said. arlsberg halted share buy backs on Monday as a result of the deal. Chief financial officer Ulrica Fearn said these would resume once Carlsberg reaches its revised target for net debt of 2.5 times EBITDA, from 3.5 times currently - a goal it expects to meet in 2027. "Whilst this represents a shift in the strategy away from organic top- and bottom-line growth and consistent returns to shareholders, we view it as a relatively low risk transaction with attractive financials," Jefferies analysts said in a note. Carlsberg also said on Monday it will buy out UK pub group Marston's (MARS.L), opens new tab from a joint venture for 206 million pounds. That will give it full ownership of the newly formed Carlsberg Britvic after the deal. ($1 = 0.7805 pounds) Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with Reuters Econ World. Sign up here. Reporting by Stine Jacobsen, Yadarisa Shabong and Emma Rumney Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, Rashmi Aich, David Goodman and David Evans
SpaceX astronaut returns with an incredible change in his body
A provocative new study reveals the complex effects of the space environment on human health, providing insight into potential damage to blood, cell structure and the immune system. The study focused on SpaceX's Inspiration4 mission, which successfully sent two men and two women into space in 2021 to orbit the Earth for three days and shed some light on the effects of space travel on the human body. The research data, derived directly from the Inspiration4 mission, shows that even a brief trip to space can significantly damage the human immune system, trigger an inflammatory response, and profoundly affect cell structure. In particular, space travel triggered unprecedented changes in cytokines that play a key role in immune response and muscle regulation but are not usually directly associated with inflammation. In particular, the study found a significant increase in muscle factors, which are physiological responses specific to skeletal muscle cells in microgravity, rather than a simple immune response. Although non-muscular tissues did not show changes in proteins associated with inflammation, specific leg muscles such as soleus and tibialis anterior muscles showed significant signs of metabolic activity, especially increased interleukin in the latter, further enhancing the activation of immune cells.
Zuckerberg surfed and drank beer on vacation, Musk: I prefer to work
After Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg posted a video on his Facebook and Instagram accounts of his free time during the Independence Day holiday on the X platform, Musk said, "I prefer to work." Zuckerberg posted a video of himself surfing on a hydrofoil in a tuxedo, waving an American flag and drinking a beer, and wrote: "Happy birthday America." The video quickly went viral, and after greg shared it on the X platform, Musk replied: "I hope he continues to have fun on the yacht." I prefer to work." Musk, a workaholic, attended the 29th annual Barron Investment Conference in November 2022, where he said: "My workload went from 78 hours a week to 120 hours a week..." In 2018, he slept on the floor of the Gigafactory in Fremont in an effort to ramp up production of the Tesla Model 3.
South Korean government decides not to punish interns who resign
South Korea's Minister of Health and Welfare Cho Kyu-hong said at a press conference on the 8th local time that after comprehensively considering the suggestions of frontline interns and the situation on the front line of medical care, the government decided that from that day on, all interns and residents who resigned would not be given administrative sanctions such as revoking their medical licenses. Cho Kyu-hong also said that for interns and residents who have returned to work and those who have resigned and are preparing to re-register for internship courses in September, the government will make special cases to try to minimize the internship gap and not affect the relevant doctors from obtaining specialist medical licenses. Cho Kyu-hong said that the government believes that in order to minimize the diagnosis and treatment gaps for critically ill and emergency patients and ensure the smooth training process of interns and residents, it is in the public interest, so it has made a decision not to punish interns and residents who resigned. It is hoped that major hospitals will complete the resignation processing of doctors who have not returned to work before July 15 and determine the scale of vacancies. Previously, large general hospitals in South Korea, such as Seoul National University Hospital, Yonsei University Severance Hospital, and Seoul Asan Medical Center, suspended or limited their medical services in an effort to cancel all penalties against interns and residents.
Exclusive: India's Paytm gets government panel nod to invest in payments arm, sources say
NEW DELHI, July 9 (Reuters) - India's beleaguered Paytm (PAYT.NS), opens new tab has secured approval from a government panel that oversees investments linked to China to invest 500 million rupees ($6 million) in a key subsidiary, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. The approval, which still has to be vetted by the finance ministry, will remove the main stumbling block to the unit, Paytm Payment Services, resuming normal business operations. Paytm Payment Services is one of the biggest remaining parts of the fintech firm's business, accounting for a quarter of consolidated revenue in the financial year ended March 2023. A separate unit, Paytm Payments Bank, was wound down this year by order of the central bank due to persistent compliance issues, triggering a meltdown in Paytm's stock. The government panel had earlier held back approval due to concerns about the 9.88% stake in Paytm held by China's Ant Group. India has intensified scrutiny of Chinese businesses since a 2020 border clash between the two countries. All in all, Paytm has been waiting for the nod from the government panel for about two years and without it, it would have had to also wind down its payment services business, which was forbidden from taking on new customers in March 2023. Once the approval has been formalised, it will be able to seek a so-called "payment aggregator" licence from the Reserve Bank of India. The sources, two of whom are government sources, declined to be identified as the decision has not been formally announced. India's foreign, home, finance and industries ministries, whose representatives sit on the panel, did not reply to emails seeking comment. A Paytm spokesperson said the company does not comment on market speculation. "We will continue to make disclosures in compliance with our obligations under the SEBI Regulations, and will inform the exchanges when there is any new material information to share," the spokesperson said.