Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.
With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.
But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.
There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.
The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.
Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.
Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.
The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.
Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
OpenAI's internal AI details stolen in 2023 breach, NYT reports
July 4 (Reuters) - A hacker gained access to the internal messaging systems at OpenAI last year and stole details about the design of the company's artificial intelligence technologies, the New York Times reported, opens new tab on Thursday. The hacker lifted details from discussions in an online forum where employees talked about OpenAI's latest technologies, the report said, citing two people familiar with the incident. However, they did not get into the systems where OpenAI, the firm behind chatbot sensation ChatGPT, houses and builds its AI, the report added. OpenAI executives informed both employees at an all-hands meeting in April last year and the company's board about the breach, according to the report, but executives decided not to share the news publicly as no information about customers or partners had been stolen. OpenAI executives did not consider the incident a national security threat, believing the hacker was a private individual with no known ties to a foreign government, the report said. The San Francisco-based company did not inform the federal law enforcement agencies about the breach, it added. OpenAI in May said it had disrupted five covert influence operations that sought to use its AI models for "deceptive activity" across the internet, the latest to stir safety concerns about the potential misuse of the technology. The Biden administration was poised to open up a new front in its effort to safeguard the U.S. AI technology from China and Russia with preliminary plans to place guardrails around the most advanced AI Models including ChatGPT, Reuters earlier reported, citing sources.
Hamas chief says latest Israeli attack on Gaza could jeopardise ceasefire talks
AIRO, July 8 (Reuters) - A new Israeli assault on Gaza on Monday threatened ceasefire talks at a crucial moment, the head of Hamas said, as Israeli tanks pressed into the heart of Gaza City and ordered residents out after a night of massive bombardment. Residents said the airstrikes and artillery barrages were among the heaviest in nine months of conflict between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in the enclave. Thousands fled. The assault unfolded as senior U.S. officials were in the region pushing for a ceasefire after Hamas made major concessions last week. The militant group said the new offensive appeared intended to derail the talks and called for mediators to rein in Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The assault "could bring the negotiation process back to square one. Netanyahu and his army will bear full responsibility for the collapse of this path," Hamas quoted leader Ismail Haniyeh as saying. Gaza City, in the north of the Palestinian enclave, was one of Israel's first targets at the start of the war in October. But clashes with militants there have persisted and civilians have sought shelter elsewhere, adding to waves of displacement. Much of the city lies in ruins. Residents said Gaza City neighbourhoods were bombed through the night into the early morning hours of Monday. Several multi-storey buildings were destroyed, they said. The Gaza Civil Emergency Service said it believed dozens of people were killed but emergency teams were unable to reach them because of ongoing offensives. Gaza residents said tanks advanced from at least three directions on Monday and reached the heart of Gaza City, backed by heavy Israeli fire from the air and ground. That forced thousands of people out of their homes to look for safer shelter, which for many was impossible to find, and some slept on the roadside.
Sparkling box office for Spring Festival films indicates tremendous potential for movie consumption in Chinese society
According to Chinese movie ticketing platform Taopiaopiao, the box office for the 2024 Spring Festival holidays surpassed last year's 6.766 billion yuan and entered the top two in the history of Chinese Spring Festival holidays box office. I recently watched three movies, and I think they are all good. However, their overall level is not higher than the movies from last Spring Festival holidays. The higher box office compared to last year reflects the strong potential for movie consumption in Chinese society. Our filmmakers need to make further efforts. The current development of Chinese movies has many advantages. People often complain that our film creation faces various "restricted areas," but in terms of societal topics, the space for Chinese film creation is relatively large and relaxed. For example, Zhang Yimou's film Article 20 shows protest scenes and boldly explores the issue of judicial injustice in depth. A few years ago, the film I Am Not Madame Bovary specifically discussed the sensitive issue of petitioning. Another film, Johnny Keep Walking! which was aired last year, also touches on serious social issues. The breadth and depth of these films' topics lay the foundation for their attractiveness. The improvement of China's basic film production level has played a role in boosting their success, resulting in Hollywood films being collectively pushed off the Chinese box office charts. Now, almost any domestic film can be considered "watchable." The next step is to produce world-class masterpieces and promote the collective advancement of Chinese films on the global stage. The three movies that I watched are YOLO, directed, written and starring Jia Ling, a representative of the new generation of female Chinese directors, Pegasus 2, directed by Han Han and Article 20. They are all realistic-themed films, and the actors who play the main characters have some overlap. Although each of them is good, as mentioned earlier, I personally feel that their overall quality is not as good as films screened during last year's Spring Festival holidays. So I have a feeling that Chinese movies have been spinning in place for a year in such a good market environment. Of course, I am not an expert, so what I say may not be correct, or it may be biased. The production level of Chinese films, in terms of technology, has caught up. Domestic films have surpassed Hollywood in the domestic market through competition, which is a great achievement. However, I hope that this does not mark the beginning of a "decoupling" between Chinese movies and the rest of the world, but rather a turning point for Chinese films to reach a higher level domestically and to go global. This requires Chinese realistic films to not only be loved by domestic audiences but also become increasingly "understandable" to foreigners, allowing them to empathize with us through these films. If Chinese films can gradually go global through market-oriented approaches, it will be a new process for the international community to re-recognize and understand China, and to establish common values between us. The earliest understanding of the US by the Chinese people came entirely from the shaping of news propaganda. Later, American films and TV works entered China, showcasing the rich American society. Now, Western media's portrayal of China is completely stereotyped. If Chinese films and other popular culture do not go global, and if a large number of secular elements from China do not appear on the global internet, the outside world's perception of China is likely to be dictated by Western media for a long time. So I hope that China's excellent film market can incubate outstanding works that are loved and enjoyed globally. Not only should our cultural policies provide greater space, but our internet public opinion should also be more tolerant of the interweaving and mutually influencing between Chinese and Western cultural elements. We should not restrict those elements in Chinese films that can resonate with both Chinese and foreign audiences. For example, comedies should not only make Chinese people laugh, but also be understandable to foreigners. Chinese films need to establish their own big stars, including top-tier female stars. In the past, Bruce Lee and Jackie Chan became famous in the West, but they were primarily seen as "Hollywood stars." It is a more challenging journey for Chinese stars to gain international recognition through their own films. The success of Chinese films and Chinese stars worldwide is definitely a complementary process. The backgrounds of our film stories should also be carefully selected and more diverse, enhancing the visual quality and international appeal of the films. Feng Xiaogang's film Be There or Be Square was entirely set in the US, and later, there was another film called Lost in Thailand, both of which achieved good results. Choosing such backgrounds should be encouraged as one of the approaches. In conclusion, I am delighted by the comprehensive recovery of the Chinese film market, and I also hope that the films nurtured by this market will continue to progress. To achieve this, we need to keep introducing the world's best films and collaboratively cultivate the aesthetic taste of the Chinese people alongside Chinese films. Chinese films have already stood up, but they should not monopolize this vast market. Instead, the Chinese market should serve as the stage for them to expand globally.
Apple's low-end Apple Watch uses a plastic case
Apple is giving the Apple Watch a major update for its 10th anniversary. The watch's display will be larger, and the entire device will be thinner and lighter. Both the Apple Watch Series 10 and the new Apple Watch Ultra 3 will be equipped with new chips, which may be paving the way for future Apple AI capabilities. According to sources, the Apple Watch health detection function has encountered some technical obstacles in the upgrade process, the blood pressure measurement function or can only realistically display fluctuations and cannot display values, and the sleep apnea detection and other functions can not appear on the new product. The shell material of Apple Watch SE series products may be replaced by hard plastic from aluminum shell. The plastic-clad Apple Watch may be sold at a lower price to compete with Samsung's cheapest Watch, the Galaxy Watch FE. In addition, Siri's new features may be delayed, and AirPods with cameras may arrive in 2026.
Poland and Ukraine sign bilateral security agreement
On July 8, Ukrainian President Zelensky, who was visiting Poland, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk signed a bilateral security agreement in Warsaw, the capital of Poland. The agreement clearly states that Poland will provide support to Ukraine in air defense, energy security and reconstruction. After signing the agreement, Tusk said that the agreement includes actual bilateral commitments, not "empty promises." Previously, the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other countries as well as the European Union signed similar agreements with Ukraine.