Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.
With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.
But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.
There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.
The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.
Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.
Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.
The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.
Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
Google Pixel 9 series phones will use Qualcomm ultrasonic fingerprint recognition technology
Google's new generation of flagship smartphone Pixel 9 series is expected to be officially released in mid-August, and the new machine is likely to be equipped with ultrasonic fingerprint recognition technology for the first time to replace the original optical fingerprint recognition. According to core intelligence, Google Pixel 9 series will use the same Qualcomm 3D Sonic Gen 2 ultrasonic fingerprint recognition sensor as the Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra. This ultrasonic technology under the screen fingerprint sensor is Qualcomm released at the CES2021 conference, compared with the previous generation of solutions, the module thickness is further reduced to 0.2mm, while the scanning area is expanded to 8mm×8mm, that is, the recognition area is increased by 77%. This will also allow users to realize fingerprint recognition without having to point their fingertips 100% accurately at the identification area indicated on the screen.
Argentina's government reform bill officially takes effect: granting the president special powers in areas such as administration
On the 8th, the Argentine government promulgated the "Foundations and Starting Points for Argentine Freedom" comprehensive bill and a package of fiscal measures, marking the official entry into force of the government reform bill. According to the official gazette of the Argentine government, Argentine President Milley, Chief Cabinet Minister Guillermo Francos and Economy Minister Luis Caputo jointly signed Decrees No. 592 and No. 593 to promulgate these two new reform measures. The comprehensive bill declared Argentina to enter a one-year public emergency in the administrative, economic, financial and energy fields, and granted the president special powers in these fields. It also includes the relaxation of economic regulations, labor reforms and the implementation of a large-scale investment incentive system. The package of fiscal measures involves anti-money laundering, tax deferral, tariffs, re-imposition of high-salary income tax and reduction of personal property taxes. On June 28, after six months of negotiations, the two reform bills were finally passed by the Argentine Congress.
The US and Australia will work to improve financial links in the Pacific region to counter China's influence
U.S. and Australian officials said on Monday (July 8) that both countries are committed to improving financial connectivity in the Pacific and strengthening banking services in the region to resist China's growing covetousness. According to Reuters, at the two-day Pacific Banking Forum co-hosted by the United States and Australia, Australian Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones said that Canberra hopes to be the partner of choice in the Pacific region, both in banking and defense. "If there are countries acting in this region whose main goal is to promote their own national interests rather than the interests of Pacific island countries, we will be very concerned," Jones said at the first day of the forum in Brisbane. He made this comment when asked about Chinese banks filling the vacuum in the Pacific region. The report said that as some Western banks have interrupted their long-standing business relationships with banks in small Pacific island countries, while others are preparing to close their businesses, these Pacific island countries face many challenges and their ability to obtain US dollar-dominated banking business is limited. The report said that experts said that Western banks are taking de-risking actions to meet financial regulations, which makes it more difficult to do business in Pacific island countries. This in turn weakens the financial resilience of these island nations. At the same time, Washington is also stepping up efforts to support Pacific island nations in limiting China's influence. Brian Nelson, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Counterterrorism and Financial Intelligence, said, "We recognize the economic and strategic importance of the Pacific region, and we are committed to deepening engagement and cooperation with our allies and partners to enhance financial connectivity, investment and integration." The report said that neither the United States nor Australia has yet announced detailed plans at the forum, but comments from officials from both countries reflect the growing unease among Western countries that have traditionally had influence in the Pacific region about China's growing influence in the region.
China's generative AI patents are far ahead of the US!
The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) recently said that China filed 38,000 artificial intelligtion-related generative AI patents from 2014-23, while the United States filed 6,276 of the 50,000 patents filed by all countries. Of the 50,000 applications, 25 percent were filed last year.The top five inventor regions are: China (38,210 inventions), the United States (6,276 inventions), the Republic of Korea (4,155 inventions), Japan (3,409 inventions) and India (1,350 inventions).
Koenigsegg Fused Three Hypercars Into One To Make The Chimera
Koenigsegg Agera RS Chimera combines technologies from Agera RS, CC850, and Jesko. An Agera RS platform features the engine from the Jesko and the simulated manual gearbox from the CC850. Development took three years, thanks to software and hardware integration challenges. A "chimera," for the uninitiated, is described as a mythical creature whose anatomy comes from multiple animals, creating a hybrid of two or more creatures' best bits. It's also the name of the latest one-off creation from Koenigsegg, and it's certainly apt; the Koenigsegg Agera RS Chimera is an amalgam of technologies from the decade-old, record-breaking Agera RS, the fascinatingly innovative CC850, and the awe-inspiring Jesko - which just recently set four new acceleration records. There's also a hint of Regera in here, which had some impressive records of its own. As reported by Mr. JWW, the strictly one-off special edition was commissioned by FIA President Mohammed Ben Sulayem, and both he and one of Koenigsegg's engineers arrived at the same name. Let's take a closer look and see exactly why this is a hybrid, even though it's not electrified. Three Cars In One The Chimera was originally a regular Agera RS and one of several Koenigsegg megacars owned by Ben Sulayem, but he asked Christian and the team to initiate a special project on his behalf. Around the same time, the extraordinary Koenigsegg CC850 was revealed at Monterey Car Week 2022, introducing the innovative Engage Shift System (ESS). This was based on the already astonishingly fast nine-speed Light Speed Transmission, with new actuators and sensors added to enable the simulation of a manual transmission without a physical link between the shifter and the gearbox. Like the rest of the world, the FIA boss was enamored by this novel technology, and as a wealthy 'Egg collector, he asked for it to be put into his special Agera-based project. Christian pondered this and ultimately decided to fulfill the request, in the process turning Ben Sulayem's special edition into something of a development mule for the ESS. But unlike the CC850, the Chimera got the larger turbos of the Jesko, enabling around 1,280 horsepower on regular gas and up to 1,600 hp on E85. That means this is an Agera RS with a CC850 transmission and a Jesko engine. On paper, that sounds simple, but the reality was anything but... Three Shifting Experiences Took Three Years To Combine According to a video from YouTuber and Koenigsegg distributor Mr. JWW, this development process took three years and required the relocation of the battery, new mounts for the powertrain, new harnesses, new software and controllers, and even a new infotainment system. To ensure all the electronics worked seamlessly was a challenge, but then Ben Sulayem asked for another layer of intricacy, requesting that paddle shifters be added, like in the Jesko Absolut and Jesko Attack. In the CC850, you could only switch between the simulated manual mode and fully automatic shifts, but now, the Chimera's development has unlocked manually operable paddles, which have now been added as the only option you can add to a CC850. There was also significant relocation and redesigning of suspension components, with parts from the Jesko and the Regera forming the subframe and elements of the suspension, respectively. A new scoop for the new transmission's cooler was also added, but it looks like it was always planned. Christian von Koenigsegg says this is a true one-off, saying that it would be cheaper and easier to start something all-new from scratch than to mix new and old technologies again, and that it's simply "too much work" to tackle a retrofit project. The Chimera is not completed just yet, as there are still subtle elements to refine, such as the bite point of the clutch pedal, but these minor issues will surely be resolved soon. It's an amazing feat, combining three hypercars in one, and we can't even fathom how Koenigsegg will top this in the future, but we don't doubt that Christian and his team will continue to do just that.