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Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.

Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.

With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.

But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.

There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.

The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.

Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.

Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.

The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.

Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.

EV maker Lucid to recall over 5,200 Air luxury sedans for software error, US regulator says
July 9 (Reuters) - Lucid Group (LCID.O), opens new tab will recall about 5,251 of its 2022-2023 Air luxury sedans due to a software error that could cause a loss of power, according to a notice from the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published on Tuesday. The regulator added the EV maker will also recall about 7,506 of its 2022-2024 Air luxury sedans due to an issue with a coolant heater that could fail to defrost the windshield. Lucid had released an over-the-air software update in June as a fix for the software error and a separate update to identify a high voltage coolant heater failure and provide a warning to the drivers of the affected vehicles. The company had reported second-quarter deliveries above market expectations on Monday, as price cuts helped boost demand for its luxury electric sedans.
Exclusive: Japan must strengthen NATO ties to safeguard global peace, PM says
TOKYO, July 9 (Reuters) - Russia's deepening military cooperation with North Korea has underlined the need for Japan to forge closer ties with NATO as regional security threats become increasingly intertwined, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told Reuters. In written remarks ahead of his attendance at a NATO summit in Washington DC this week, Kishida also signalled concern over Beijing's alleged role in aiding Moscow's two-year-old war in Ukraine, although he did not name China. "The securities of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific are inseparable, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its deepened military cooperation with North Korea are strong reminders of that," Kishida said. "Japan is determined to strengthen its cooperation with NATO and its partners," he added. The world, the Japanese leader said, should not tolerate attempts by some countries to disrupt the established international order and reiterated a warning that Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow. He also urged cooperation to confront new security threats that transcend geographical boundaries, such as cyber-attacks and conflicts in space. The U.S. and its allies have accused Pyongyang of providing ballistic missiles and artillery shells that Russia has used in its war in Ukraine and say they fear Moscow in return could provide support for North Korea's nuclear missile development. Washington has also said China is supplying droneWithout naming China, Kishida told Reuters "some countries" have allegedly transferred dual-use civilian-military goods to Russia which has served "as a lifeline" for its Ukraine war. "It is necessary to grapple with such situations in a multi-faceted and strategic manner, taking a panoramic view that considers the full range of international actors fuelling Russia’s attempt to change the status quo by force," he said. "The geographical boundary of 'Euro-Atlantic' or 'Indo-Pacific' is no longer relevant in safeguarding global peace and security. Japan and Indo-Pacific partners can play a great role for NATO allies from this perspective." Constrained by decades of pacifism, Tokyo has been reluctant to supply lethal aid to Ukraine. It has, however, provided financial aid to Kyiv, spearheaded efforts to prepare for its post-war reconstruction, and contributed to NATO’s fund to provide Ukraine with non-lethal equipment such as anti-drone detection systems. Tokyo has also repeatedly warned about the risks of a similar conflict emerging in East Asia, where China has been taking an increasingly muscular stance towards its territorial claims including the democratic island of Taiwan. "This summit is a critical opportunity for Japan, the U.S., and the other NATO allies to confront the ongoing challenges against the international order and to reaffirm values and principles that have shaped global peace and prosperity," he said. There may be limits, however, over how far NATO members are prepared to go in forging closer ties in Asia. A plan that surfaced last year for NATO to open a liaison office in Japan, its first in Asia, was blocked by France and criticised by China. and missile technology, satellite imagery and machine tools to Russia, items which fall short of lethal assistance but are helping Moscow build its military to sustain the Ukraine war. Beijing has said it has not provided any weaponry to any party.
Hedge fund Elliott challenges court verdict it lost against LME on nickel
LONDON, July 9 (Reuters) - U.S.-based hedge fund Elliott Associates on Tuesday urged a London court to overturn a verdict supporting the London Metal Exchange's (LME) cancellation of nickel trades partly because the exchange failed to disclose documents. The LME annulled $12 billion in nickel trades in March 2022 when prices shot to records above $100,000 a metric ton in a few hours of chaotic trade. Elliott and market maker Jane Street Global Trading brought a case demanding a combined $472 million in compensation, alleging at a trial in June last year that the 146-year-old exchange had acted unlawfully. London's High Court ruled last November that the LME had the right to cancel the trades because of exceptional circumstances, and was not obligated to consult market players prior to its decision. Lawyers for Elliott told London's Court of Appeal that the LME belatedly released documents in May detailing its "Kill Switch" and "Trade Halt" internal procedures. It also newly disclosed an internal report that Elliott said detailed potential conflicts of interest at the exchange. "It was troubling that one gets disclosure out of the blue in the Court of Appeal for the first time," Elliott lawyer Monica Carss-Frisk told the court. Jane Street Global did not appeal the ruling. "If we had had them (documents) in the proceedings before the divisional court, we may well have sought permission to cross examine." LME lawyers said the new documents were not relevant. "The disclosed documents do not affect the reasoning of the divisional court or the merits of the arguments on appeal," the exchange said in documents prepared for the appeal hearing. "Elliott's appeal is largely a repetition of the arguments which were advanced, and rightly rejected." The LME said it had both the power and a duty to unwind the trades because a record $20 billion in margin calls could have led to at least seven clearing members defaulting, systemic risk and a potential "death spiral". Elliott said the ruling diluted protection provided by the Human Rights Act and also wrongly concluded the LME had the power to cancel the trades.
China proposes to establish BCI committee to strive for domestic innovation
China is mulling over establishing a Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) standardization technical committee under its Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), aiming to guide enterprises to enhance industrial standards and boost domestic innovation. The proposed committee, revealed by the MIIT on Monday, will work on composing a BCI standards roadmap for the entire industry development as well as the standards for the research and development of the key technologies involved, according to the MIIT. China has taken strides in developing the BCI industry over the years, not only providing abundant policy support but also generous financial investment, Li Wenyu, secretary of the Brain-Computer Interface Industrial Alliance, told the Global Times. From last year to 2024, both the central and local governments have successively issued relevant policies to support industrial development. The MIIT in 2023 rolled out a plan selecting and promoting a group of units with strong innovation capabilities to break through landmark technological products and accelerate the application of new technologies and products. The Beijing local government also released an action plan to accelerate the industry in the capital (2024-2030) this year. In 2023, there were no fewer than 20 publicly disclosed financing events for BCI companies in China, with a total disclosed amount exceeding 150 million yuan ($20.6 million), Li said. “The strong support from the government has injected momentum into industrial innovation.” The fact that China's BCI industry started later than Western countries such as the US is a reality, leading to the gap in China regarding technological breakthroughs, industrial synergy, and talent development, according to Li. To further close gaps and solve bottlenecks in BCI industrial development, Li suggested that the industry explore various technological approaches to suit different application scenarios and encourage more medical facilities powered by BCI to initiate clinical trials by optimizing the development of BCI-related ethics. Additionally, he highlighted that standard development is one of the aspects to enhance the overall level and competitiveness of the industry chain, which could, in turn, empower domestic BCI innovation. While China's BCI technology generally lags behind leading countries like the US in terms of system integration and clinical application, this has not hindered the release of Neucyber, which stands as China's first "high-performance invasive BCI." Neucyber, an invasive implanted BCI technology, was independently developed by Chinese scientists from the Chinese Institute for Brain Research in Beijing. Li Yuan, Business Development Director of Beijing Xinzhida Neurotechnology, the company that co-developed this BCI system, told the Global Times that the breakthrough of Neucyber could not have been achieved without the efforts of the institute gathering superior resources from various teams in Beijing. A group of mature talents were gathered within the institute, from specific fields involving electrodes, chips, algorithms, software, and materials, Li Yuan said. Shrugging off the outside world's focus on China’s competition with the US in this regard, Li Yuan said her team doesn’t want to be imaginative and talk too much, but strives to produce a set of products step by step that can be useful in actual applications. In addition, Li Wenyu also attributed the emergence of Neucyber to the independent research atmosphere and the well-established talent nurturing mechanism in the Chinese Institute for Brain Research. He said that to advance China’s BCI industry, it is necessary not only to cultivate domestic talents but also to introduce foreign talents to enhance China's research and innovation capabilities. The proposed plan for establishing the BCI standardization technical committee under the MIIT will solicit public opinions until July 30, 2024.
Record numbers of people are flying. So why are airlines’ profits plunging?
New York CNN — A record number of passengers are expected to pass through US airports this holiday travel week. You’d think this would be a great time to run an airline. You’d be wrong. Airlines face numerous problems, including higher costs, such as fuel, wages and interest rates. And problems at Boeing mean airlines have too few planes to expand routes to support a record numbers of flyers. Strong bookings can’t entirely offset that financial squeeze. The good news for passengers is they will be spared most of the problems hurting airlines’ bottom lines — at least in the near term. Airfares are driven far more by supply and demand, not their costs. But in the long run, the airlines’ difficulties could mean fewer airline routes, less passenger choice and ultimately a less pleasant flying experience. Profit squeeze Industry analysts expect airlines to report a drop of about $2 billion in profit, or 33%, when they report financial results for the April to June period this year. That would follow losses of nearly $800 million across the industry in the first quarter. Labor costs and jet fuel prices, the airlines’ two largest costs, are both sharply higher this year. Airline pilot unions just landed double-digit pay hikes to make up for years of stagnant wages; flight attendant unions now want comparable raises. Jet fuel prices are climbing because of higher demand in the summer. According to the International Air Transport Association’s jet fuel monitor, prices are up 1.4% in just the last week, and about 4% in the last month. Adding to the airlines’ problems is the crisis at Boeing, as well as the less-well-publicized problems with some of the jet engines on planes from rival Airbus. Since an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max jet lost a door plug on a January 5 flight, leaving a gaping hole in the side of the plane 10 minutes after takeoff, the Federal Aviation Administration has limited how many jets Boeing can make over concerns about quality and safety. As a result, airlines have dramatically reduced plans to expand their fleets and replace older planes with more fuel efficient models. In some cases, airlines have asked pilots to take time off without pay, and carriers such as Southwest and United have announced pilot hiring freezes. In addition to the problems at Boeing, hundreds of the Airbus A220 and A320 family of jets globally have also been grounded for at least a month or more to deal with engine problems. Just about all the planes with those engines have been out of sevice for at least a few days to undergo examinations. And Airbus has also cut back the number of planes it expects to deliver to airlines this year because of supply chain problems. Problems for flyers For now, competition in the industry remains fierce: There are 6% more seats available this month compared to July of 2023, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. And that’s helped to drive fares down — good news for passengers, but more bad news for airlines’ profits. Southwest announced in April that it would stop serving four airports to trim costs — Bellingham International Airport in Washington state, Cozumel International Airport in Mexico, Syracuse Hancock International Airport in New York and Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport. Many more cities lost air service during the financial hard times of the pandemic. While upstart airlines are driving prices lower for travelers, those discount carriers might not survive long term. As the major carriers are making less money, many of the upstarts are flat-out losing money.