Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.
With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.
But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.
There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.
The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.
Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.
Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.
The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.
Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
When Amazon also started upgrading "refund only"
Amazon official said that the freight from the Chinese warehouse will be lower than the traditional FBA(Fulfillment by Amazon) fee, similar to the domestic air delivery small package service, which will undoubtedly greatly reduce the logistics costs of sellers. In addition to logistics, Amazon is also responsible for promotion and traffic, of course, sellers can still independently carry out product advertising, pricing and promotion activities, to maintain the personalized and independent brand. Many industry insiders said that Amazon launched the "low-price store" move to fight China's cross-border e-commerce platforms Temu, Shein, AliExpress and so on. Although it provides another platform for China's e-commerce to go to sea, many sellers said that the cost of settling in Amazon cross-border e-commerce has become lower, and they have asked about the conditions of settling in, but the rules look down, in fact, it is not so friendly for sellers.
Biden accelerated aging over the past year!
n a recent interview with ABC, US President Joe Biden said he had no intention of dropping out of the race, blaming his poor debate performance on a cold. He also insisted he was "still in good shape" and would remain in the race, saying only "Almighty God" could pull him out. An insider who has worked with Mr. Biden for a long time said that signs of aging had become apparent over the past year, but that Mr. Biden's team had failed to address it. Biden's televised debate performance heightened concerns about an already slow-moving issue. Mr. Biden's advisers have long dodged questions about his age. But now they acknowledge that Biden's aging is an undeniable fact. The debate forced the president to more openly acknowledge the limitations of his age, which he had previously largely dismissed. But they have only taken superficial measures and have not fundamentally solved the problem. They replaced the long staircase that Mr. Biden used to board Air Force One with a shorter one; Assistants often accompanied him in public to make his stiff gait less noticeable; While he has a busy schedule, aides have arranged for buffer time, such as long weekends at his homes in Wilmington and Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, or extended stays at Camp David, a Maryland resort, to rest after a "grueling" stretch of travel. Under the authority of one of his top advisers, Anita Dunn, Mr. Biden's public interactions -- especially with reporters -- were severely limited. Even at major events with Democrats or other supporters, the White House sometimes limits the amount of time Biden can spend with the audience, two people familiar with the matter said. As a protective response, designed to protect their longtime boss.
Google Pixel 9 series phones will use Qualcomm ultrasonic fingerprint recognition technology
Google's new generation of flagship smartphone Pixel 9 series is expected to be officially released in mid-August, and the new machine is likely to be equipped with ultrasonic fingerprint recognition technology for the first time to replace the original optical fingerprint recognition. According to core intelligence, Google Pixel 9 series will use the same Qualcomm 3D Sonic Gen 2 ultrasonic fingerprint recognition sensor as the Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra. This ultrasonic technology under the screen fingerprint sensor is Qualcomm released at the CES2021 conference, compared with the previous generation of solutions, the module thickness is further reduced to 0.2mm, while the scanning area is expanded to 8mm×8mm, that is, the recognition area is increased by 77%. This will also allow users to realize fingerprint recognition without having to point their fingertips 100% accurately at the identification area indicated on the screen.
"Corrupt Politicians GPT" "Fiscal Bill GPT", Kenyan protesters use AI to "protest"
In the past few weeks of anti-government activities in Kenya, AI tools have been creatively used by protesters to serve protests. According to the US "Flag" News Agency on July 5, protests in Kenya triggered by the 2024 fiscal bill are still continuing. In the past few weeks, Kenyan protesters, mainly young people, have creatively developed a series of AI tools to assist anti-government activities. The Kenyan government expressed concern about the risks associated with the use of AI tools in protests. Kelvin Onkundi, a software engineer in Kenya, developed the "Fiscal Bill GPT", which operates similarly to ChatGPT and can receive questions about the fiscal bill and generate responses. Martin Siele, a reporter from the "Flag" News Agency, analyzed: "The 'Fiscal Bill GPT' can convert professional terms in many legislative fields into easy-to-understand information for protesters, helping Kenyans understand the potential impact of the fiscal bill." Another software engineer, Marion Kavengi, developed the "SHIF GPT" to provide Kenyans with information about the upcoming Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF). In addition to AI tools designed to help people understand controversial policies, protesters have also developed "Corrupt Politicians GPT" to assist protest demonstrations. After entering the name of a politician on the platform, the platform will generate a list of corruption scandals about the politician in chronological order. Developer BenwithSon wrote on the social platform X on June 28: "'Corrupt Politicians GPT' allows people to search for any scandal related to any politician. I have seen some leaders stand at the forefront of the political arena, but they are corrupt behind the scenes." Kenyan Chief Minister and Foreign Minister Mudavadi issued a communiqué to ambassadors of various countries in Nairobi on July 2 local time on protests and relevant government measures, expressing concerns about the use of AI and false information in protests. Mudavadi said: "AI technology is used by people with ulterior motives, which will fill the global information system with false narratives." The Kenya Times reported on June 30 that AI technology enables people to force the government to increase transparency and strengthen accountability, and its role in Kenyan political activities is becoming increasingly prominent. Martin Siller believes that AI is reshaping African political behavior in many ways. AI is a new tool for both governments and opposition parties in Africa, but Kenya is one of the African countries with the most developers, and its young protesters are particularly good at using AI technology to fight the government. The 2024 fiscal bill voted and passed by the Kenyan National Assembly on June 25 clearly stated that additional taxes will be levied to repay the interest on high sovereign debt, triggering large-scale demonstrations. After President Ruto announced the withdrawal of the tax increase bill on the evening of the 26th, demonstrations in many parts of Kenya continued. According to Reuters on July 3, Kenyan anti-government protesters are re-adjusting their activities to prevent the protests from turning into violent incidents.
World's deepest diving pool opens in Poland, 45.5 meters deep
The world's deepest diving pool, Deepspot, opened this weekend near the Polish capital Warsaw. The 45.5-meter pool contains artificial underwater caves, Mayan ruins and a small shipwreck for scuba divers and free divers to explore. Deepspot can hold 8,000 cubic meters of water, more than 20 times the capacity of a normal 25-meter swimming pool. Unlike ordinary swimming pools, Deepspot can still open despite Poland's COVID-19 epidemic prevention restrictions because it is a training center that provides courses. The operator also plans to open a hotel where guests can observe divers at a depth of 5 meters from their rooms. "This is the deepest diving pool in the world," Michael Braszczynski, 47, Deepspot's director and a diving enthusiast, told AFP at the opening yesterday. The current Guinness World Record holder is a 42-meter-deep pool in Montegrotto Terme, Italy. The 50-meter-deep Blue Abyss pool in the UK is scheduled to open in 2021. On the first day of Deepspot's opening, about a dozen people visited, including eight experienced divers who wanted to pass the instructor exam. "There are no spectacular fish or coral reefs here, so it can't replace the ocean, but it is certainly a good place to learn and train safe open water diving," said 39-year-old diving instructor Przemyslaw Kacprzak. "And it's fun! It's like a kindergarten for divers."