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Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.

Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.

With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.

But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.

There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.

The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.

Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.

Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.

The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.

Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.

Hedge fund Elliott challenges court verdict it lost against LME on nickel
LONDON, July 9 (Reuters) - U.S.-based hedge fund Elliott Associates on Tuesday urged a London court to overturn a verdict supporting the London Metal Exchange's (LME) cancellation of nickel trades partly because the exchange failed to disclose documents. The LME annulled $12 billion in nickel trades in March 2022 when prices shot to records above $100,000 a metric ton in a few hours of chaotic trade. Elliott and market maker Jane Street Global Trading brought a case demanding a combined $472 million in compensation, alleging at a trial in June last year that the 146-year-old exchange had acted unlawfully. London's High Court ruled last November that the LME had the right to cancel the trades because of exceptional circumstances, and was not obligated to consult market players prior to its decision. Lawyers for Elliott told London's Court of Appeal that the LME belatedly released documents in May detailing its "Kill Switch" and "Trade Halt" internal procedures. It also newly disclosed an internal report that Elliott said detailed potential conflicts of interest at the exchange. "It was troubling that one gets disclosure out of the blue in the Court of Appeal for the first time," Elliott lawyer Monica Carss-Frisk told the court. Jane Street Global did not appeal the ruling. "If we had had them (documents) in the proceedings before the divisional court, we may well have sought permission to cross examine." LME lawyers said the new documents were not relevant. "The disclosed documents do not affect the reasoning of the divisional court or the merits of the arguments on appeal," the exchange said in documents prepared for the appeal hearing. "Elliott's appeal is largely a repetition of the arguments which were advanced, and rightly rejected." The LME said it had both the power and a duty to unwind the trades because a record $20 billion in margin calls could have led to at least seven clearing members defaulting, systemic risk and a potential "death spiral". Elliott said the ruling diluted protection provided by the Human Rights Act and also wrongly concluded the LME had the power to cancel the trades.
McDonald’s expands operational map in Chinese market, to roll out more outlets in the country
McDonald's China, together with its four major suppliers announced the launch of an industrial park in Xiaogan city, Central China's Hubei Province on Wednesday, highlighting the importance of Chinese market in terms of supply chain for food business. With a combined investment of 1.5 billion yuan ($206 million), the park, named Hubei Smart Food Industrial Park, is a joint project with Bimbo QSR, XH Supply Chain, Tyson Foods Inc, and Zidan, according to information provided to the Global Times. The park is expected to produce 34,000 tons of meat products, 270 million buns, 30 million pastries, and 2 billion packaged products annually. It also features a 25,000-square-meter high-standard automated warehouse for frozen, refrigerated, and dry goods, reducing logistics time by 90 percent from manufacturing to arriving at the destination. Leveraging local geographical advantages, the park will become a supply hub for McDonald's in central and western China, enhancing supply efficiency and stability for its outlets there, the company said. "McDonald's has been deeply rooted in China for over 30 years, and the park is an echo of our long-term development in China," said Phyllis Cheung, CEO of McDonald's China. "Without any long-term strategy, we don't have any structural advantage in China," Cheung noted. The US food giant continues to expand its business map in China. As of the end of June in 2024, there were over 6,000 restaurants and over 200,000 employees in the market. China has become the second largest and fastest-growing market of McDonald's. In 2023, McDonald's China unveiled the ambition of operating 10,000 restaurants by 2028. To support this, McDonald's and its suppliers have invested over 12 billion yuan from between 2018 to 2023 to develop new production capacities and enhance supply chain sustainability. Observers said that the industrial park reflect foreign companies' confidence in operating in China as the country takes concrete measures in furthering reform and opening-up. China's foreign direct investment from January to May 2024 reached 412.51 billion yuan, with the number of newly-established foreign-backed companies reaching 21,764, rising by 17.4 percent year-on-year, data from China's Ministry of Commerce revealed. According to a recent survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China, the majority of US companies saw improved profitability in China in 2023, and half of the survey participants put China as their first choice or within their top three investment destinations globally. Olaf Korzinovski, EVP of Volkswagen China, who is responsible for production and components, also shared his understanding of supply chains in China with the Global Times. Volkswagen has been operating in China for about 40 years. "In order to seize greater value for our customers," Volkswagen Group is stepping up pace of innovation in China, and systematically purshing forward the digitalization process, Korzinovski noted, adding the company is strengthening local capabilities with accelerated decision-making efficiency. Global Times
Exclusive: Japan must strengthen NATO ties to safeguard global peace, PM says
TOKYO, July 9 (Reuters) - Russia's deepening military cooperation with North Korea has underlined the need for Japan to forge closer ties with NATO as regional security threats become increasingly intertwined, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told Reuters. In written remarks ahead of his attendance at a NATO summit in Washington DC this week, Kishida also signalled concern over Beijing's alleged role in aiding Moscow's two-year-old war in Ukraine, although he did not name China. "The securities of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific are inseparable, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its deepened military cooperation with North Korea are strong reminders of that," Kishida said. "Japan is determined to strengthen its cooperation with NATO and its partners," he added. The world, the Japanese leader said, should not tolerate attempts by some countries to disrupt the established international order and reiterated a warning that Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow. He also urged cooperation to confront new security threats that transcend geographical boundaries, such as cyber-attacks and conflicts in space. The U.S. and its allies have accused Pyongyang of providing ballistic missiles and artillery shells that Russia has used in its war in Ukraine and say they fear Moscow in return could provide support for North Korea's nuclear missile development. Washington has also said China is supplying droneWithout naming China, Kishida told Reuters "some countries" have allegedly transferred dual-use civilian-military goods to Russia which has served "as a lifeline" for its Ukraine war. "It is necessary to grapple with such situations in a multi-faceted and strategic manner, taking a panoramic view that considers the full range of international actors fuelling Russia’s attempt to change the status quo by force," he said. "The geographical boundary of 'Euro-Atlantic' or 'Indo-Pacific' is no longer relevant in safeguarding global peace and security. Japan and Indo-Pacific partners can play a great role for NATO allies from this perspective." Constrained by decades of pacifism, Tokyo has been reluctant to supply lethal aid to Ukraine. It has, however, provided financial aid to Kyiv, spearheaded efforts to prepare for its post-war reconstruction, and contributed to NATO’s fund to provide Ukraine with non-lethal equipment such as anti-drone detection systems. Tokyo has also repeatedly warned about the risks of a similar conflict emerging in East Asia, where China has been taking an increasingly muscular stance towards its territorial claims including the democratic island of Taiwan. "This summit is a critical opportunity for Japan, the U.S., and the other NATO allies to confront the ongoing challenges against the international order and to reaffirm values and principles that have shaped global peace and prosperity," he said. There may be limits, however, over how far NATO members are prepared to go in forging closer ties in Asia. A plan that surfaced last year for NATO to open a liaison office in Japan, its first in Asia, was blocked by France and criticised by China. and missile technology, satellite imagery and machine tools to Russia, items which fall short of lethal assistance but are helping Moscow build its military to sustain the Ukraine war. Beijing has said it has not provided any weaponry to any party.
Samsung Electronics wins cutting-edge AI chip order from Japan's Preferred Networks
SEOUL, July 9 (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), opens new tab said on Tuesday it won an order from Japanese artificial intelligence company Preferred Networks to make chips for AI applications using the South Korean firm's 2-nanometre foundry process and advanced chip packaging service. It is the first order Samsung has revealed for its cutting-edge 2-nanometre chip contract manufacturing process. Samsung did not elaborate on the size of the order. The chips will be made using high-tech chip architecture known as gate all-around (GAA) and multiple chips will be integrated in one package to enhance inter-connection speed and reduce size, Samsung said in a statement. South Korea's Gaonchips Co (399720.KQ), opens new tab designed the chips, Samsung said. The chips will go toward Preferred Networks' high-performance computing hardware for generative AI technologies such as large language models, Junichiro Makino, Preferred Networks vice president and chief technology officer of computing architecture, said in the statement.
US foreign policy is advanced smartphone with weak battery
A couple of days ago, a Quad summit meeting in Sydney scheduled for May 24 was abruptly canceled. The US president had to pull out of his long-anticipated trip to Australia and Papua New Guinea. Instead, the heads of the four Quad member states got together on the margins of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima on May 20. The main reason for the change of plans was the continuous struggle between the White House and Republicans on the Hill over the national debt ceiling. If no compromise is reached, the US federal government might fail to meet its financial commitments already in June; such a technical default would have multiple negative repercussions for the US, as well as for the global economy and finance at large. Let us hope that a compromise between the two branches of US power will be found and that the ceiling of the national debt will be raised once again. However, this rather awkward last-minute cancellation of the Quad summit reflects a fundamental US problem - a growing imbalance between the US geopolitical ambitions and the fragility of the national financial foundation to serve these ambitions. The Biden administration appears to be fully committed to bringing humankind back to the unipolar world that existed right after the end of the Cold War some 30 years ago, but the White House no longer has enough resources at its disposal to sustain such an undertaking. As they say in America: You cannot not have champagne on a beer budget. The growing gap between the ends that the US seeks in international relations and the means that it has available is particularly striking in the case of the so-called dual containment policy that Washington now pursues toward Russia and China. Even half a century ago, when the US was much stronger in relative terms than it is today, the Nixon administration realized that containing both Moscow and Beijing simultaneously was not a good idea: "Dual containment" would imply prohibitively high economic costs for the US and would result in too many unpredictable political risks. The Nixon administration decided to focus on containing the Soviet Union as the most important US strategic adversary of the time. This is why Henry Kissinger flew to Beijing in July 1971 to arrange the first US-China summit in February 1972 leading to a subsequent rapid rapprochement between the two nations. In the early days of the Biden administration, it seemed that the White House was once again trying to avoid the unattractive "dual containment" option. The White House rushed to extend the New START in January 2021 and held an early US-Russia summit meeting five months later in Geneva. At that point many analysts predicted that Biden would play Henry Kissinger in reverse - that is he would try to peace with the relatively weaker opponent (Moscow) in order to focus on containing the stronger one (Beijing). However, after the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it became clear that no accommodation with the Kremlin was on Biden's mind any longer. Still, having decided to take a hard-line stance toward Moscow and to lead a broad Western coalition in providing military and economic assistance to Kiev, Washington has not opted for a more accommodative or at least a more flexible policy toward Beijing. On the contrary, over last year one could observe a continuous hardening of the US' China policy - including granting more political and military support to the Taiwan island, encouraging US allies and partners in Asia to increase their defense spending, engaging in more navel activities in the Pacific and imposing more technology sanctions on China. In the meantime, economic and social problems within the US are mounting. The national debt ceiling is only the tip of an iceberg - the future of the American economy is now clouded by high US Federal Reserve interest rates that slow down growth, feed unemployment and might well lead to a recession. Moreover, the US society remains split along the same lines it was during the presidency of Donald Trump. The Biden administration has clearly failed to reunite America: Many of the social, political, regional, ethnic and even generational divisions have got only deeper since January 2021. It is hard to imagine how a nation divided so deeply and along so many lines could demonstrate continuity and strategic vision in its foreign policy, or to allocate financial resources needed to sustain a visionary and consistent global leadership. Of course, the "dual containment" policy is not the only illustration of the gap between the US ambitions and its resources. The same gap inevitably pops up at every major forum that the US conducts with select groups of countries from the Global South - Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America or the Middle East. The Biden administration has no shortage of arguments warning these countries about potential perils of cooperating with Moscow or Beijing, but it does not offer too many plausible alternatives that would showcase the US generosity, its strategic vision, and its true commitment to the burning needs of the US interlocutors. To cut it short, Uncle Sam brings lots of sticks to such meetings, but not enough carrots to win the audience. In sum, US foreign policy under President Joe Biden reminds people of a very advanced and highly sophisticated smartphone that has a rather weak battery, which is not really energy efficient. The proud owner of the gadget has to look perennially for a power socket in order not to have the phone running out of power at any inappropriate moment. Maybe the time has come for the smartphone owner to look for another model that would have fewer fancy apps, but a stronger and a more efficient battery, which will make the appliance more convenient and reliable.