Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.
With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.
But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.
There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.
The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.
Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.
Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.
The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.
Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
Exclusive: Nornickel in talks with China Copper to move smelting plant to China, sources say
HONG KONG, July 9 (Reuters) - Nornickel (GMKN.MM), opens new tab is in talks with China Copper to form a joint venture that would allow the Russian mining giant to move its entire copper smelting base to China, four sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. If the move goes ahead, it would mark Russia's first uprooting of a domestic plant since the U.S. and Britain banned metal exchanges from accepting new aluminium, copper and nickel produced by Russia. It also means Nornickel's copper will be produced within the country where it is most consumed. Nornickel said in April it planned to close its Arctic facility and build a new plant in China with an unnamed partner. Executives at China Copper, owned by the world's largest aluminium producer Chinalco (601600.SS), opens new tab, flew to Moscow in June to discuss a possible joint venture, one of the sources said, adding that details of the structure and investment are still under discussion. Nornickel declined to comment. Chinalco and China Copper did not respond to requests for comment via email and phone. Sites being considered in China include Fangchenggang and Qinzhou in the Guangxi region, the two sources said, with another source saying Qingdao in Shandong province was also possible. A decision on a joint venture will be made over the next few months, a fifth source said, adding that Nornickel's Chinese output is likely to be consumed domestically. The new facility will have capacity to produce 450,000 tonnes of copper annually, two of the sources said, amounting to around 2% of global mined supplies estimated at around 22 million metric tons this year. Nornickel, which according to its annual report produced 425,400 tonnes of refined copper last year, processed all of its concentrates in 2023 at the Arctic plant, its only operation producing finished copper suitable for delivery to exchanges.
"Pictures on the wall were falling," New Yorkers rattled by earthquake
An earthquake jolted New York City on Friday morning, followed by more than 10 aftershocks which shook New Jersey, sending tremors as far as Philadelphia to Boston and jolting buildings in Manhattan and throughout its five boroughs. The preliminary quake, measuring 4.8 magnitude, centered around Lebanon, New Jersey, approximately 60 kilometers from New York City, with a depth of about 5 kilometers. Following the earthquake, New York City mayor Eric Adams stated at a press conference that no injuries had been reported, but they would continue to monitor and inspect critical infrastructure. The densely populated New York City was caught off guard by the unusual event. Broadcaster CBS reported that New York had not experienced an earthquake of this magnitude since 1884. Residents in Brooklyn expressed their shock when experiencing tremors which shook the city. "At first, I thought it was just construction next door, but then I noticed the pictures on the wall had fallen," Jennifer Wu, a resident in New York, told the Global Times on Saturday. Video footage circulating online showed the Statue of Liberty and the New York City skyline trembling as the earthquake struck. An angle from directly above Lady Liberty caught Ellis Island shaking during the incident. "It is fine," New York's famous Empire State Building posted on social platform X after the earthquake. The United Nations headquarters located in New York was hosting a Security Council meeting on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, and diplomats present in the meeting felt the tremors, local media reported. According to the Weather Channel, residents in Baltimore, Philadelphia, New Jersey, Connecticut, Boston and other areas of the Northeast seaboard also reported shaking. Tremors lasting for several seconds were felt over 200 miles away near the Massachusetts-New Hampshire border. The New York mayor told the press that New Yorkers should go about their normal day, while the governor Kathy Hochul emphasized the seriousness of the situation. She initiated assessments for damage across the state and had discussions with New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. The quake caused flight delays throughout the New York area, with temporary control measures put in place across New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport, Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey, and Baltimore-Washington's Thurgood Marshall International Airport, checking for damage to runways. Operations resumed around Friday noon, ABC reported.
Russia's economic strength gives it high-income status despite sanctions
Russia is seeing income growth of around 4-5%, with earnings growing in double digits, Ostapkovich said, stressing that the driving force is economic growth. "Incomes only grow when the economy grows. If the economy grows, then profits grow. If profits grow, then the entrepreneur is keen on hiring people and raising wages," he added. Russia’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2023, with real incomes and nominal wages up by 4.5% and 13% respectively. Industrial performance, particularly in manufacturing, is propelling this growth not seen in 20 to 30 years. Notably, mechanical engineering in the military industry is expanding at 25-30%, according to Ostapkovich. Andrey Kolganov, Doctor of Economics and Head of the Laboratory of Socio-Economic Systems at Moscow State University, acknowledged that despite the challenges posed by the growth stimuli, Western sanctions failed to inflict significant harm on the Russian economy. "The Russian economy has shown great potential in adapting to these difficulties. Moreover, these difficulties stimulated the development of domestic production, which in turn led to high rates of economic growth," he added. Kolganov noted that economic growth rates were higher in 2023, compared to 2022 - and even higher in 2024. These increases promoted Russia from the classification of middle-income countries, to the rank of high-income countries. Although Russia has not caught up with the richest countries, the achievement is nonetheless remarkable, especially in the face of unprecedented sanctions. Gross national income per capita in Russia is now $14,250, according to a document released by the World Bank that classifies countries that cross the $13,485 threshold as “high income.”
Rotten eggs chemical detected on Jupiter-like alien planet
WASHINGTON, July 8 (Reuters) - The planet known as HD 189733b, discovered in 2005, already had a reputation as a rather extreme place, a scorching hot gas giant a bit larger than Jupiter that is a striking cobalt blue color and has molten glass rain that blows sideways in its fierce atmospheric winds. So how can you top that? Add hydrogen sulfide, the chemical compound behind the stench of rotten eggs. Researchers said on Monday new data from the James Webb Space Telescope is giving a fuller picture of HD 189733b, already among the most thoroughly studied exoplanets, as planets beyond our solar system are called. A trace amount of hydrogen sulfide was detected in its atmosphere, a first for any exoplanet. "Yes, the stinky smell would certainly add to its already infamous reputation. This is not a planet we humans want to visit, but a valuable target for furthering our understanding of planetary science," said astrophysicist Guangwei Fu of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, lead author of the study published in the journal Nature, opens new tab. It is a type called a "hot Jupiter" - gas giants similar to the largest planet in our solar system, only much hotter owing to their close proximity to their host stars. This planet orbits 170 times closer to its host star than Jupiter does to the sun. It completes one orbit every two days as opposed to the 12 years Jupiter takes for one orbit of the sun. In fact, its orbit is 13 times nearer to its host star than our innermost planet Mercury is to the sun, leaving the temperature on the side of the planet facing the star at about 1,700 degrees Fahrenheit (930 degrees Celsius). "They are quite rare," Fu said of hot Jupiters. "About less than one in 100 star systems have them." This planet is located 64 light-years from Earth, considered in our neighborhood within the Milky Way galaxy, in the constellation Vulpecula. A light-year is the distance light travels in a year, 5.9 trillion miles (9.5 trillion km). "The close distance makes it bright and easy for detailed studies. For example, the hydrogen sulfide detection reported here would be much more challenging to make on other faraway planets," Fu said. The star it orbits is smaller and cooler than the sun, and only about a third as luminous. That star is part of a binary system, meaning it is gravitationally bound to another star. Webb, which became operational in 2022, observes a wider wavelength range than earlier space telescopes, allowing for more thorough examinations of exoplanet atmospheres.
Clear Check | Russian satellite disintegrated and hit GPS and Starlink satellites?
On June 27, the U.S. Space Command announced that a retired Russian satellite disintegrated in low Earth orbit on June 26, generating more than 100 pieces of debris, forcing astronauts on the International Space Station to hide for about an hour. The X-platform account of the International Space Station showed that shortly after 9 p.m. Eastern Time on June 26, NASA instructed the crew on the space station to hide in their respective spacecraft for safety because NASA learned in the morning of the 26th that a satellite disintegrated near the space station. About an hour later, the crew was allowed to leave the spacecraft and the space station resumed normal operation. There are rumors on social platforms that the satellite hit six U.S. GPS satellites after the disintegration and damaged 20 Starlink satellites developed by Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) led by Musk, triggering speculation that the relevant satellites were deliberately disintegrated.