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Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.

Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.

With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.

But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.

There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.

The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.

Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.

Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.

The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.

Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.

Australia pledges to provide more funds to Pacific island banks to counter China's influence
Australia pledged on Tuesday to increase investment in Pacific island nations, offering A$6.3 million ($4.3 million) to support their financial systems. Some Western banks are cutting ties with the region because of risk factors, while China is trying to increase its influence there. Some Western bankers have terminated long-standing banking relationships with small Pacific nations, while others are considering closing operations and restricting access to dollar-denominated bank accounts in those countries. "We know that the Pacific is the fastest-moving region in the world for correspondent banking services," Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in a speech at the Pacific Banking Forum in Brisbane. "What's at stake here is the Pacific's ability to engage with the world," he said, with much of the region at risk of being cut off from the global financial system. Chalmers said Australia would provide A$6.3 million ($4.3 million) to the Pacific to develop secure digital identity infrastructure and strengthen compliance with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing requirements. Experts say Western banks are de-risking to meet financial regulations, making it harder for them to do business in Pacific island nations, where compliance standards sometimes lag, undermining their financial resilience. Australia's ANZ Bank is in talks with governments about how to make its Pacific island businesses more profitable amid concerns about rising Chinese influence as financial services leave the West, Chief Executive Shayne Elliott said Tuesday. ANZ is the largest bank in the Pacific region, with operations in nine countries, though some of those businesses are not financially sustainable, Elliott said in an interview on the sidelines of the forum. "If we were there purely for commercial purposes, we would have closed it a long time ago," he said. Western countries, which have traditionally dominated the Pacific, are increasingly concerned about China's plans to expand its influence in the region after it signed several major defense, trade and financial agreements with the region. Bank of China signed an agreement with Nauru this year to explore opportunities in the country, following Australia's Bendigo Bank saying it would withdraw from the country. Mr. Chalmers said Australia was working with Nauru to ensure that banking services in the country could continue. ANZ Bank exited its retail business in Papua New Guinea in recent years, while Westpac considered selling its operations in Fiji and Papua New Guinea but decided to keep them. The Pacific lost about 80% of its correspondent banking relationships for dollar-denominated services between 2011 and 2022, Australian Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones told the forum, which was co-hosted by Australia and the United States. “We would be very concerned if there were countries acting in the region whose primary objective was to advance their own national interests rather than the interests of Pacific island countries,” Mr. Jones said on the first day of the forum in Brisbane. He made the comment when asked about Chinese banks filling a vacuum in the Pacific. Meanwhile, Washington is stepping up efforts to support Pacific island countries in limiting Chinese influence. "We recognize the economic and strategic importance of the Pacific region, and we are committed to deepening engagement and cooperation with our allies and partners to enhance financial connectivity, investment and integration," said Brian Nelson, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Counterterrorism and Financial Intelligence. The United States is aware of the problem of Western banks de-risking in the Pacific region and is committed to addressing it, Nelson told the forum's participants. He said data showed that the number of correspondent banking relationships in the Pacific region has declined at twice the global average rate over the past decade, and the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank are developing plans to improve correspondent banking relationships. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a video address to the forum on Monday (July 8) that the United States is focused on supporting economic resilience in the Pacific region, including by strengthening access to correspondent banks. She said that when President Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met at the White House last year, they particularly emphasized the importance of increasing economic connectivity, development and opportunities in the Pacific region, and a key to achieving that goal is to ensure that people and businesses in the region have access to the global financial system.
TikTok to introduce a new feature that can clone your voice with AI in just 10 second
Use of AI is certainly the hottest topic in the tech industry and every major and minor player in this industry is using AI in some way. Tools like ChatGPT can help you do a wide range of task and even help you generate images. The other thing is - Voice Cloning. OpenAI recently introduced a voice engine that can generate clone of your voice with just 15 seconds of your audio. There is no shortage of voice cloning tools on the web which can help you do the same. The newest tech giant which is going to use AI to clone your voice is - TikTok. We all know TikTok, posting short videos with filters, effects and all other kind of things. So TikTok found a way to use the voice cloning AI in its app. TikTok is working on this feature, which does not seem to really have a proper name, it just references it as "Create your voice with AI" and "TikTok Voice Library". In the latest version of TikTok I came across some strings which indicates that TikTok is working on it. I was also able to access the initial UI which introduces the feature and was able to see the terms and condition of "TikTok Voice Library" which user have to accept in order to use the feature. Here are the screenshots from the app- As you can in the screenshot above, this is the initial screen which a user will see for the first time they access this feature. Tiktok claims that it can create an AI verison of your voice in just 10 seconds. The generated AI voice clone can be used with text-to-speech in TikTok videos. It also outline the process of how it will work. You have to record yourself speaking and TikTok will process the voice and use information about your voice to generate your AI voice. When it comes to privacy, your AI voice will stay private and you can delete it anytime. Tapping the "Continue" button brings "TikTok Voice Library Terms" screen which a user should definitely read, you can see here and read as well - How it will work After agreeing to terms and conditions I was introduced with a screen where TikTok will show some text and user have to press the record button while reading the text. Now unfortunately I did not see any text. This is probably because the feature is not fully ready or the backend from which it fetches the text is not live yet. Manually pressing the record button and saying random things also shows an error. So, it's also not possible to provide any sample voice generated with it and see how it compares to other voice cloning competitors. If it starts working someday, it will process your recorded voice and generate AI version of your voice. Here is a screenshot of that screen - My guess is that whenever the feature starts working, users have to clone voice only one time and the saved AI voice can be used through the text-to-speech method to add voice in your videos. You just have to type the words, choice is yours :p
Sparkling box office for Spring Festival films indicates tremendous potential for movie consumption in Chinese society
According to Chinese movie ticketing platform Taopiaopiao, the box office for the 2024 Spring Festival holidays surpassed last year's 6.766 billion yuan and entered the top two in the history of Chinese Spring Festival holidays box office. I recently watched three movies, and I think they are all good. However, their overall level is not higher than the movies from last Spring Festival holidays. The higher box office compared to last year reflects the strong potential for movie consumption in Chinese society. Our filmmakers need to make further efforts. The current development of Chinese movies has many advantages. People often complain that our film creation faces various "restricted areas," but in terms of societal topics, the space for Chinese film creation is relatively large and relaxed. For example, Zhang Yimou's film Article 20 shows protest scenes and boldly explores the issue of judicial injustice in depth. A few years ago, the film I Am Not Madame Bovary specifically discussed the sensitive issue of petitioning. Another film, Johnny Keep Walking! which was aired last year, also touches on serious social issues. The breadth and depth of these films' topics lay the foundation for their attractiveness. The improvement of China's basic film production level has played a role in boosting their success, resulting in Hollywood films being collectively pushed off the Chinese box office charts. Now, almost any domestic film can be considered "watchable." The next step is to produce world-class masterpieces and promote the collective advancement of Chinese films on the global stage. The three movies that I watched are YOLO, directed, written and starring Jia Ling, a representative of the new generation of female Chinese directors, Pegasus 2, directed by Han Han and Article 20. They are all realistic-themed films, and the actors who play the main characters have some overlap. Although each of them is good, as mentioned earlier, I personally feel that their overall quality is not as good as films screened during last year's Spring Festival holidays. So I have a feeling that Chinese movies have been spinning in place for a year in such a good market environment. Of course, I am not an expert, so what I say may not be correct, or it may be biased. The production level of Chinese films, in terms of technology, has caught up. Domestic films have surpassed Hollywood in the domestic market through competition, which is a great achievement. However, I hope that this does not mark the beginning of a "decoupling" between Chinese movies and the rest of the world, but rather a turning point for Chinese films to reach a higher level domestically and to go global. This requires Chinese realistic films to not only be loved by domestic audiences but also become increasingly "understandable" to foreigners, allowing them to empathize with us through these films. If Chinese films can gradually go global through market-oriented approaches, it will be a new process for the international community to re-recognize and understand China, and to establish common values between us. The earliest understanding of the US by the Chinese people came entirely from the shaping of news propaganda. Later, American films and TV works entered China, showcasing the rich American society. Now, Western media's portrayal of China is completely stereotyped. If Chinese films and other popular culture do not go global, and if a large number of secular elements from China do not appear on the global internet, the outside world's perception of China is likely to be dictated by Western media for a long time. So I hope that China's excellent film market can incubate outstanding works that are loved and enjoyed globally. Not only should our cultural policies provide greater space, but our internet public opinion should also be more tolerant of the interweaving and mutually influencing between Chinese and Western cultural elements. We should not restrict those elements in Chinese films that can resonate with both Chinese and foreign audiences. For example, comedies should not only make Chinese people laugh, but also be understandable to foreigners. Chinese films need to establish their own big stars, including top-tier female stars. In the past, Bruce Lee and Jackie Chan became famous in the West, but they were primarily seen as "Hollywood stars." It is a more challenging journey for Chinese stars to gain international recognition through their own films. The success of Chinese films and Chinese stars worldwide is definitely a complementary process. The backgrounds of our film stories should also be carefully selected and more diverse, enhancing the visual quality and international appeal of the films. Feng Xiaogang's film Be There or Be Square was entirely set in the US, and later, there was another film called Lost in Thailand, both of which achieved good results. Choosing such backgrounds should be encouraged as one of the approaches. In conclusion, I am delighted by the comprehensive recovery of the Chinese film market, and I also hope that the films nurtured by this market will continue to progress. To achieve this, we need to keep introducing the world's best films and collaboratively cultivate the aesthetic taste of the Chinese people alongside Chinese films. Chinese films have already stood up, but they should not monopolize this vast market. Instead, the Chinese market should serve as the stage for them to expand globally.
US politicians' lurch to levying high tariffs to damage global economic sustainability
US politicians are advocating for steep tariffs, echoing the protectionist Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922. Despite potential international retaliation, risks to global economic rules and a shift from post-World War II principles, US politicians have promised to increase trade barriers against China, causing concerns for the sustainability of global economic harmony. A century ago, the Republican Congress passed the Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922. This post-World War-I effort to protect the US from German competition and rescue America's own businesses from falling prices sparked a global wave of tariff hikes. While long forgotten, echoes of Fordney-McCumber now reverberate across the US political landscape. Once again, politicians are grasping the tariff as a magic talisman against its own economic ills and to contain the rise of China. The Democratic Party of the 1920s opposed tariffs, because duties are harmful to consumers and farmers, but today both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump favor national delivery through protectionism. Trump promised that his second term, if elected, would impose 60-percent tariffs on everything arriving from China and 10-percent tariffs on imports from the rest of the world, apparently including the imports covered by 14 free trade agreements with America's 20 partners. He initially promised 100-percent tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs), but when Biden declared that he was hiking tariffs on EVs from China to 100-percent, Trump raised the ante to 200-percent. On May 14, 2024, the White House imposed tariffs ranging from 25 percent (on items such as steel, aluminum and lithium batteries) to 50 percent (semiconductors, solar cells, syringes and needles) and 100 percent (electric vehicles) on Chinese imports. US government officials offer "national security" and "supply chain vulnerability" as the justification for levying high tariffs. To deflect worries about inflation, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai declared, "first of all, I think that that link, in terms of tariffs to prices, has been largely debunked." Contrary findings by the United States International Trade Commission and a number of distinguished economists, as well as Biden's own 2019 statement criticizing Trump's tariffs - "Trump doesn't get the basics. He thinks tariffs are being paid by China… [but] the American people are paying his tariffs" - forced Tai's office to wind back her declaration. The fact that prohibitive barriers to imports of solar cells, batteries and EVs will delay the green economy carries zero political weight with Trump and little with Biden. Nor does either of them worry about the prospects of Chinese retaliation and damage to the fabric of global economic rules. Historical lessons - unanticipated consequences of the foolish Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922 and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 - are seen as irrelevant by the candidates and their advisers. The US' lurch from its post-World War II free trade principles offers China a golden opportunity. On the world stage, China will espouse open free trade and investment. China will encourage EV and battery firms to establish plants in Europe, Brazil, Mexico and elsewhere, essentially daring the US to damage its own alliances by restricting third country imports containing Chinese components. Whether the fabric of global economic rules that has delivered astounding prosperity to the world will survive through the 21st century remains to be seen. Much will depend on the decisions of other large economic powers, not only China but also the European Union and Japan, as well as middle powers, such as Australia, Brazil, Chile, ASEAN and South Korea. Their actions and reactions will reshape the rules of the 21st century. If others follow America down this costly path, the world will become less prosperous and vastly more unpredictable. If they resist, the US risks being diminished and more isolated. The author is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn
Japan and the Philippines signed the "Reciprocal Access Agreement". Experts: Japan wants to use the Philippines to strategically contain China
Japan and the Philippines signed an important defense agreement, and the two sides became "quasi-allies". On July 8, local time, Japan and the Philippines signed the "Reciprocal Access Agreement" in Manila. The agreement will relax restrictions on the movement of personnel between the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the Philippine military during joint exercises, mutual visits and other operations in each other's countries. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian responded at a regular press conference on the 8th that exchanges and cooperation between countries should not undermine mutual understanding and trust between regional countries, should not undermine regional peace and stability, and should not target third parties or undermine the interests of third parties. The Asia-Pacific region does not need military groups, let alone "small circles" that provoke camp confrontation and instigate a "new Cold War". Any actions that undermine peace and stability in the region and undermine unity and cooperation in the region will arouse the vigilance and common opposition of the people in the region. Japan and the Philippines upgraded to a "quasi-alliance" relationship On the same day, a "2+2" meeting attended by the foreign ministers and defense ministers of Japan and the Philippines was held in Manila. Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa attended the talks with Philippine Defense Minister Gilbert Teodoro and Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo. This is the second Japan-Philippines "2+2" meeting. The last one was held in Tokyo in April 2022. Witnessed by Philippine President Marcos, the two sides signed the "Reciprocal Access Agreement". Marcos expressed the hope that the bilateral relations between the Philippines and Japan and the trilateral cooperation between the Philippines, Japan and the United States will be further deepened. The "Reciprocal Access Agreement" is also known as the "Military Visits Agreement". Military and defense cooperation between sovereign states, especially sending troops into each other's territory, usually faces complicated procedures and other problems. In order to simplify the procedures, the two countries will reach relevant agreements to simplify the approval procedures for the entry of troops from both sides into each other's countries, and facilitate mutual visits and joint military activities between the two countries' troops. The "Reciprocal Access Agreement" was born. Take the "Reciprocal Access Agreement" signed by Japan and Australia (full name "Agreement between Japan and Australia on Promoting Mutual Access and Cooperation Facilitation between the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the Australian Defense Force") as an example. The agreement has 29 articles, covering many areas such as entry and exit procedures for troops, jurisdiction, taxation, cost burden and compensation. The key is to simplify the entry and exit procedures for visiting troops and their members, ships, aircraft, etc., relax restrictions on the transportation of weapons, ammunition and materials carried by visiting troops, and provide a legal basis for the two countries' troops and weapons and equipment to enter each other's territory. Japan and the Philippines signed the "Reciprocal Access Agreement", making the Philippines the third country to conclude this agreement with Japan after Australia and the United Kingdom. Cai Liang, Secretary-General and Researcher of the China-Japan Relations Research Center of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, analyzed to The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that Japan and the Philippines have their own strategic considerations for signing the "Reciprocal Access Agreement". As for the Philippines, due to its limited strength, it does not exclude any foreign power willing to strengthen military cooperation with the Philippines from intervening in the South China Sea situation. Therefore, it can be seen that in the past two years, the Philippines has actively promoted Australia, France, India and other countries to intervene in the South China Sea and strengthen military cooperation with them, involving intelligence, weapons and equipment, and training and exercises. "Japan's purpose is very simple. Strengthening military cooperation with the Philippines is to strategically balance China. The United States and the Philippines are allies, and the US-Japan alliance has been upgraded to a 'quasi-alliance'. The military cooperation between the United States, Japan and the Philippines has been upgraded to a new level." Cai Liang said, "The signing of an important defense agreement between Japan and the Philippines will make it easier for Japan to intervene in the South China Sea situation and seek the 'three seas linkage' of the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait, in order to better respond to China's strategy and enhance its international influence." As for whether the signing of the "Reciprocal Access Agreement" means that Japan will deploy the Self-Defense Forces in the Philippines, Cai Liang pointed out that this agreement only simplifies the procedures for the troops of both sides to enter each other's territory, and is more suitable for short-term training, military exercises, etc., and is not a long-term deployment of the Self-Defense Forces in the Philippines. The two countries deepen military cooperation The Philippine presidential office also said in a statement that Japan is one of the four major strategic partners of the Philippines, and the two countries have established a strategic partnership for more than ten years. It seems no coincidence that Japan and the Philippines signed the "Reciprocal Access Agreement" at this time. Recently, China-Philippines relations have become tense around the situation in the South China Sea. The Global Times quoted Japan's Kyodo News Agency as saying that the two sides are seeking to strengthen cooperation against China. Minoru Kihara said last week: "The Philippines is located in a strategically important region, occupies a key position on Japan's sea lanes, and is also an ally of the United States. Joint training and strengthening cooperation with the Philippines are of great significance to the realization of a 'free and open Indo-Pacific region'." Cai Liang said that Japan's intervention in the South China Sea situation is mainly to reduce strategic pressure in the East China Sea and southwest of Japan, but it is not conducive to peace and stability in the South China Sea. It is reported that Japan and the Philippines began negotiations on the agreement in November last year. The signing of the "Reciprocal Access Agreement" by the two sides lays the foundation for the two countries to strengthen bilateral and even multilateral military cooperation in the future. The Japanese government intends to allow the Self-Defense Forces to formally participate in the annual US-Philippines "Shoulder to Shoulder" joint exercises around the Philippines after the agreement comes into effect. The Self-Defense Forces previously participated in the "Shoulder to Shoulder" exercises as observers, and will be able to formally participate after signing the agreement. In April this year, the United States and the Philippines held the largest "Shoulder to Shoulder" exercise to date, involving 5,000 Philippine personnel and 11,000 US personnel. The military exercise also included about 150 Australian military personnel and 100 French naval personnel. According to the plan, 14 countries including Japan and India sent personnel as observers. The "Typhon" medium-range missile launch system deployed by the US military on Luzon Island in the Philippines for the first time participated in the exercise, which aroused great attention from all walks of life. In terms of weapons and equipment exports, Japan and the Philippines have gradually strengthened military cooperation in recent years. The Philippines recently agreed to purchase five Coast Guard patrol ships from Japan to enhance its patrol capabilities in the South China Sea. Defense News reported in November last year that the Philippines had received an early warning radar system from Japan in 2023, the first major equipment transfer since the Japanese government lifted the postwar defense export ban in 2014. The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Kamikawa mentioned topics such as defense equipment transfer, "government security capability enhancement support" (OSA), and economic and trade cooperation. The OSA project was created by the Kishida government and plans to allocate billions of yen in budget to assist the military construction of the Philippines and other countries, including providing the Philippines with 5 sets of coastal surveillance radars. Regarding Japan's relaxation of restrictions on defense equipment exports, the Chinese Ministry of Defense previously responded that Japan has continuously broken through the constraints of the "peace constitution" and the principle of "exclusive defense", and has been making small moves in the field of military security, which has aroused high vigilance and strong concern from the international community. China requires Japan to deeply reflect on its history of aggression, attach importance to the security concerns of its Asian neighbors, adhere to the path of peaceful development, and win the trust of its Asian neighbors and the international community with practical actions.