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Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.

Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.

With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.

But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.

There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.

The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.

Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.

Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.

The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.

Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.

Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall. Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%. With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet. But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%. There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony. The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday. Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%. Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%. The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption. Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
Workers warn of additional walkouts unless demands are met
Members of the National Samsung Electronics Union stage a rally near the company's Hwaseong Campus in Gyeonggi Province, Monday, beginning a three-day strike. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul By Nam Hyun-woo The biggest labor union at Samsung Electronics initiated a three-day strike on Monday, threatening to disrupt the company's chip manufacturing lines unless management agrees to a wage hike and higher incentives. This marks the first strike by unionized workers in the tech giant's 55-year history. The National Samsung Electronics Union (NSEU) claimed that about 4,000 unionized workers from Samsung's plants nationwide participated in a rally at the company's Hwaseong Campus in Gyeonggi Province. Police estimated that approximately 3,000 union members were present at the rally. According to its own survey, the union reported that a total of 6,540 members expressed their intention to participate in the strike. They emphasized that disruptions in manufacturing are anticipated, with over 5,000 members from facility, manufacturing, and development divisions joining the strike. The comments seem to address market expectations that the walkout is unlikely to cause significant disruptions in the chipmaker's operations, largely because most manufacturing lines are automated. The union said that it may launch another strike for an undetermined period, unless management responds to the union’s demand. Since January, the union has been pressing management for a higher wage increase rate for all members, fulfillment of promises regarding paid leave, and improvements to incentive criteria. With negotiations at an impasse, the union announced on May 29 that it would launch a strike. The NSEU has some 30,000 members, accounting for 24 percent of all Samsung employees. Among the union members, about 80 percent work at the device solutions division, which manufactures semiconductors.
Google extends Linux kernel support to 4 years
According to AndroidAuthority, the Linux kernel used by Android devices is mostly derived from Google's Android Universal Kernel (ACK) branch, which is created from the Android mainline kernel branch when new LTS versions are released upstream. For example, when kernel version 6.6 is announced as the latest LTS release, an ACK branch for Android15-6.6 appears shortly after, with the "android15" in the name referring to the Android version of the kernel (in this case, Android 15). Google maintains its own set of LTS kernel branches for three main reasons. First, Google can integrate upstream features that have not yet been released into the ACK branch by backporting or picking, so as to meet the specific needs of Android. Second, Google can include some features that are being developed upstream in the ACK branch ahead of time, making it available for Android devices as early as possible. Finally, Google can add some vendor or original equipment manufacturer (OEM) features for other Android partners to use. Once created, Google continues to update the ACK branch to include not only bug fixes for Android specific code, but also to integrate the LTS merge content of the upstream kernel branch. For example, the Linux kernel vulnerability disclosed in the July 2024 Android security bulletin will be fixed through these updates. However, it is not easy to distinguish a bug fix from other bug fixes, as a patch that fixes a bug may also accidentally plug a security vulnerability that the submitter did not know about or chose not to disclose. Google does its best to recognize this, but it inevitably misses the mark, resulting in bug fixes for the upstream Linux kernel being released months before Android devices. As a result, Google has been urging Android vendors to regularly update the LTS kernel to avoid being caught off guard by unexpectedly disclosed security vulnerabilities. Clearly, the LTS version of the Linux kernel is critical to the security of Android devices, helping Google and vendors deal with known and unknown security vulnerabilities. The longer the support period, the more timely security updates Google and vendors can provide to devices.
Will chatGPT lead to job losses?
In fact, ChatGPT can bring more opportunities to many industries, such as customer service, marketing, speech recognition, and more. ChatGPT can help businesses engage with customers more effectively, improve the customer experience, and give businesses more time and resources to focus on other tasks. Come to see While ChatGPT can replace humans in certain situations, it is not a complete replacement for humans. In many cases, human-to-human communication is still the most effective way. Therefore, the emergence of ChatGPT will not lead to the unemployment of all people, but will cause structural changes in the labor force and the redistribution of occupations.
Enhance Your Photos With NASA's Sharpening Technique
Incredible space photos like those from NASA don't look as stunning straight out of the telescope. They need significant processing, and a crucial part of that is sharpening. Coming to you from Unmesh Dinda with PiXimperfect, this fascinating video explores the APF-R plugin, developed by award-winning astrophotographer Christoph Kaltseis. APF-R stands for Absolute Point of Focus, and it's designed to enhance photo details without creating halos or artifacts. This technology has been used by space agencies with telescopes like the James Webb, and now, you can use it in Photoshop. The plugin allows for non-destructive editing, meaning you can adjust the radius and detail level without permanently altering your image. This feature is crucial for astrophotography, where preserving original details is vital. The video shows how APF-R compares to Photoshop's built-in sharpening tools. The plugin offers multiple rendering methods, each suited for different types of images. For instance, the "Center Weighted" method provides a balanced sharpening effect without making the image look overprocessed. Dinda explains how to fine-tune these settings to achieve the best results, making it clear why this plugin is a game-changer for photographers looking to enhance their images with precision. One notable feature of APF-R is its ability to work with different image types. The video demonstrates how the plugin enhances not just space photos but also landscapes and portraits. For portraits, APF-R can bring out skin textures and eye details without creating the unwanted halos that traditional sharpening methods often produce. Dinda also shows how to combine APF-R with other Photoshop tools, like Smart Sharpen, for even better results. This versatility makes APF-R a valuable addition to any photographer's toolkit. The plugin's cost is $50, which Dinda considers a bargain given its advanced capabilities. There's also a Creative Bundle subscription that includes APF-R and 20 other tools, offering great value for those looking to expand their editing options. Dinda provides discount codes in the video description, making this sophisticated tool more accessible. Check out the video above for the full rundown from Dinda.