Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.
With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.
But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.
There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.
The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.
Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.
Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.
The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.
Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall. Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%. With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet. But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%. There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony. The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday. Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%. Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%. The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption. Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
WhatsApp's new feature will let Meta AI edit your photos for you
WhatsApp beta version 2.24.14.20 has a new feature that allows users to share photos with Meta AI. The AI chatbot will analyze uploaded images and provide information or context about the content. Users may be able to request specific edits to their photos directly through Meta AI, though the extent of this feature is still unknown. As the battle for AI dominance heats up, Meta is adding a new trick to its AI chatbot, Meta AI, which is already part of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. While Meta AI already has impressive text capabilities, such as replying to questions, suggesting captions, and holding conversations, users cannot currently share or upload photos to the Meta AI chat. WaBetaInfo has uncovered the exciting new feature in the WhatsApp beta for Android version 2.24.14.20. This feature will allow Meta AI to interact with photos shared by users, reply to photos, and even edit them. As shown in the attached screenshot, WhatsApp is testing a new camera button in the Meta AI chat, designed to function similarly to the camera button in regular chats. This addition will allow users to manually share photos with Meta AI, a capability that is currently unavailable. With this new functionality, users will be able to ask questions about their photos, presumably allowing users to ask the AI to identify objects or locations or provide context about the photo’s content. Moreover, the screenshot suggests that Meta AI will also offer the option to edit photos, enabling users to make changes to their images directly within the chat by sharing a prompt. The exact scope of this image editing feature remains unclear, leaving us to wonder if it will be limited to simple tweaks or if it will unleash a powerful AI-driven photo editing suite. The possibilities are both exciting and intriguing, and this feature could definitely be a big hit, especially if it performs as promised. While this new image-sharing feature would mean Meta will analyze and face-scan the photos you upload, the screenshot includes a disclaimer indicating that users will have the option to delete their photos whenever they want. As of now, it seems that the feature is still in development, so it might be some time before we finally get to see it roll out publicly. Recently, we also reported about WhatsApp working on an “Imagine Me” feature that would allow Meta AI to generate AI avatars of you based on a set of your photos. WhatsApp in our newsletters WhatsApp is a leading messaging app, keep up to date on the latest, and learn about more Android apps today!
Wto: Members have more trade promotion measures than restrictions
The latest trade monitor released recently by the World Trade Organization shows that between mid-October 2023 and mid-May 2024, WTO members continued to introduce more trade promotion measures than trade restrictive measures. The WTO said it was an important signal of members' commitment to keep trade flowing amid the current geopolitical uncertainty. According to WTO statistics, during the monitoring period, WTO members adopted 169 trade promotion measures on commodities, more than the 99 trade restrictive measures introduced. Most of the measures are aimed at imports. Commenting on the findings, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that despite the challenging geopolitical environment, this latest trade monitoring report highlights the resilience of world trade. Even against the backdrop of rising protectionist pressures and signs of economic fragmentation, governments around the world are taking meaningful steps to liberalize and boost trade. This demonstrates the benefits of trade on people's purchasing power, business competitiveness and price stability. The WTO monitoring also identified significant new developments in economic support measures. Subsidies as part of industrial policy are increasing rapidly, especially in areas related to climate change and national security.
Former British PM Sunak appoints Conservative Party shadow cabinet
On July 8, local time, former British Prime Minister Sunak announced the appointment of the Conservative Party Shadow Cabinet, which is the first shadow cabinet of the Conservative Party in 14 years. Several former British cabinet members during Sunak's tenure as prime minister were appointed to the Conservative Party Shadow Cabinet, including James Cleverly as Shadow Home Secretary and Jeremy Hunt as Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer. But former Foreign Secretary Cameron was not appointed as Shadow Foreign Secretary. In addition, the new leader of the Conservative Party will be elected as early as this week. On July 4, the UK held a parliamentary election. The counting results showed that the British Labour Party won more than half of the seats and won an overwhelming victory; the Conservative Party suffered a disastrous defeat, ending its 14-year continuous rule.
Apple's low-end Apple Watch uses a plastic case
Apple is giving the Apple Watch a major update for its 10th anniversary. The watch's display will be larger, and the entire device will be thinner and lighter. Both the Apple Watch Series 10 and the new Apple Watch Ultra 3 will be equipped with new chips, which may be paving the way for future Apple AI capabilities. According to sources, the Apple Watch health detection function has encountered some technical obstacles in the upgrade process, the blood pressure measurement function or can only realistically display fluctuations and cannot display values, and the sleep apnea detection and other functions can not appear on the new product. The shell material of Apple Watch SE series products may be replaced by hard plastic from aluminum shell. The plastic-clad Apple Watch may be sold at a lower price to compete with Samsung's cheapest Watch, the Galaxy Watch FE. In addition, Siri's new features may be delayed, and AirPods with cameras may arrive in 2026.