Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%.
With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet.
But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%.
There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony.
The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday.
Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.
Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%.
The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption.
Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.
United Airlines Boeing 757 loses tire during takeoff
United Airlines confirmed that a tire fell off a Boeing 757 passenger plane when it took off from Los Angeles International Airport in the early morning of July 8, local time. It is reported that there has been no report of any material damage or casualties in this accident. United Airlines said in a statement that the aircraft tire has been found and the investigation is ongoing. There were 174 passengers and 7 crew members on the flight involved. The flight left Los Angeles International Airport at around 7:15 on July 8 and flew to Denver. Unlike the aircraft tire falling incident on a United Airlines flight in March, the pilot of this flight continued the journey to Denver and landed smoothly there.
Doctors visited the White House 8 times? White House: Biden did not receive treatment for Parkinson's disease
White House spokeswoman Karina Jean-Pierre denied a report in the U.S. media on the 8th that President Joseph Biden did not receive treatment for Parkinson's disease. Biden had the first televised debate of the 2024 presidential election with Republican opponent Donald Trump on June 27, and his poor performance on the spot triggered discussions about his physical condition. The New York Times reported that a doctor specializing in the treatment of Parkinson's disease had "visited" the White House eight times from August last year to March this year. Facing the media's questions about Biden's health, Jean-Pierre asked and answered himself at a regular White House press conference on the 8th: "Has the president received treatment for Parkinson's disease? No. Is he currently receiving treatment for Parkinson's disease? No, he is not. Is he taking medication for Parkinson's disease? No." Jean-Pierre said Biden had seen a neurologist three times, all related to his annual physical examination. She also took out the report issued by the doctor after Biden's most recent physical examination in February this year. The report said, "An extremely detailed neurological examination was once again reassuring" because no symptoms consistent with stroke, multiple sclerosis or Parkinson's disease were found. The doctor who went to the White House mentioned by the New York Times is Kevin Kanal, a neurology and movement disorder expert at the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland and an authority on Parkinson's disease. Jean-Pierre suggested that the doctor might have come to treat military personnel on duty at the White House.
Russian military launches massive missile attack, Kiev children's hospital hit; President Biden issues statement condemning Russia's "brutalism"
A children's hospital in the Ukrainian capital was hit by a Russian missile on Monday as part of a wave of airstrikes across Ukraine that has killed at least 31 people and injured 154 others. "Russian terrorists have once again launched a massive missile attack on Ukrainian cities - Kiev, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelensky said Russia fired more than 40 missiles of different types at the five cities in daytime attacks, hitting residential buildings and public infrastructure. The Ukrainian air force said it intercepted 30 missiles. Authorities said the attack on Kiev killed seven people, while the attack on Kryvyi Rih, Zelensky's birthplace in central Ukraine, killed 10 and injured 47. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attacks, calling the assault on the Kiev hospital and another medical facility in the capital's Dniprovsky district "particularly egregious," said his spokesman, Stephane Dujarric. "Direct attacks on civilians and civilian objects are prohibited under international humanitarian law. Any such attacks are unacceptable and must cease immediately," Dujarric said. The U.N. Security Council will meet Tuesday to discuss the Russian strikes, diplomats said. The Russian Defense Ministry said the strikes targeted Ukrainian defense factories and a military aviation base and were successful. It denied striking any civilian facilities and claimed, without evidence, that photos from Kiev showed the damage was caused by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile. Ukrainian Air Force Colonel Yurii Ignat said Russia has been improving the effectiveness of its air strikes by equipping its missiles with enhanced features, including so-called heat decoys that can throw air defense systems off target. In comments sent to The Associated Press, he said the cruise missiles flew low in Monday's attack -- just 50 meters off the ground -- making them harder to hit. Western countries, led by the United States, have provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in arms support. They will hold a three-day NATO summit in Washington starting Tuesday to work out how to reassure Kiev of NATO's strong support and give Ukrainians hope that their country can survive the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. "Today's Russian missile strike that killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians and caused damage and loss of life to Kyiv's largest children's hospital is a horrifying reminder of Russia's brutality," U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement Monday. "It is critical that the world continues to stand with Ukraine at this important moment and that we do not ignore Russian aggression." Biden said in the statement that he will meet with President Zelensky during the NATO summit in Washington this week "to make clear our unwavering support for Ukraine." Biden continued: "We will join our allies in announcing new measures to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses and help protect their cities and civilians from Russian attacks. The United States stands with the Ukrainian people." Czech President Petr Pavel said the hospital attack was "inexcusable" and he hoped the NATO summit would reach a consensus that Russia is "the greatest threat and we must be fully prepared to deal with it." Zelensky said during a visit to Poland that he hoped the NATO summit would provide Ukraine with more air defense systems. The Ukrainian leader said rescuers were digging through the rubble of the Ohmatdit Children's Hospital in Kyiv and that the number of casualties was not yet known. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said at least 16 people were injured, including seven children, and the attack caused a two-story wing of the hospital to partially collapse. Doors and windows were blown off the hospital's 10-story main building, and the walls were charred. The floor of one room was splattered with blood. Hospital officials said the intensive care unit, operating room and oncology department were damaged.
China proposes to establish BCI committee to strive for domestic innovation
China is mulling over establishing a Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) standardization technical committee under its Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), aiming to guide enterprises to enhance industrial standards and boost domestic innovation. The proposed committee, revealed by the MIIT on Monday, will work on composing a BCI standards roadmap for the entire industry development as well as the standards for the research and development of the key technologies involved, according to the MIIT. China has taken strides in developing the BCI industry over the years, not only providing abundant policy support but also generous financial investment, Li Wenyu, secretary of the Brain-Computer Interface Industrial Alliance, told the Global Times. From last year to 2024, both the central and local governments have successively issued relevant policies to support industrial development. The MIIT in 2023 rolled out a plan selecting and promoting a group of units with strong innovation capabilities to break through landmark technological products and accelerate the application of new technologies and products. The Beijing local government also released an action plan to accelerate the industry in the capital (2024-2030) this year. In 2023, there were no fewer than 20 publicly disclosed financing events for BCI companies in China, with a total disclosed amount exceeding 150 million yuan ($20.6 million), Li said. “The strong support from the government has injected momentum into industrial innovation.” The fact that China's BCI industry started later than Western countries such as the US is a reality, leading to the gap in China regarding technological breakthroughs, industrial synergy, and talent development, according to Li. To further close gaps and solve bottlenecks in BCI industrial development, Li suggested that the industry explore various technological approaches to suit different application scenarios and encourage more medical facilities powered by BCI to initiate clinical trials by optimizing the development of BCI-related ethics. Additionally, he highlighted that standard development is one of the aspects to enhance the overall level and competitiveness of the industry chain, which could, in turn, empower domestic BCI innovation. While China's BCI technology generally lags behind leading countries like the US in terms of system integration and clinical application, this has not hindered the release of Neucyber, which stands as China's first "high-performance invasive BCI." Neucyber, an invasive implanted BCI technology, was independently developed by Chinese scientists from the Chinese Institute for Brain Research in Beijing. Li Yuan, Business Development Director of Beijing Xinzhida Neurotechnology, the company that co-developed this BCI system, told the Global Times that the breakthrough of Neucyber could not have been achieved without the efforts of the institute gathering superior resources from various teams in Beijing. A group of mature talents were gathered within the institute, from specific fields involving electrodes, chips, algorithms, software, and materials, Li Yuan said. Shrugging off the outside world's focus on China’s competition with the US in this regard, Li Yuan said her team doesn’t want to be imaginative and talk too much, but strives to produce a set of products step by step that can be useful in actual applications. In addition, Li Wenyu also attributed the emergence of Neucyber to the independent research atmosphere and the well-established talent nurturing mechanism in the Chinese Institute for Brain Research. He said that to advance China’s BCI industry, it is necessary not only to cultivate domestic talents but also to introduce foreign talents to enhance China's research and innovation capabilities. The proposed plan for establishing the BCI standardization technical committee under the MIIT will solicit public opinions until July 30, 2024.
Explainer: How Boeing's Starliner can bring its astronauts back to Earth
WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - Problems with Boeing's Starliner capsule, still docked at the International Space Station (ISS), have upended the original plans for its return of its two astronauts to Earth, as last-minute fixes and tests draw out a mission crucial to the future of Boeing's (BA.N), opens new tab space division. NASA has rescheduled the planned return three times, and now has no date set for it. Since its June 5 liftoff, the capsule has had five helium leaks, five maneuvering thrusters go dead and a propellant valve fail to close completely, prompting the crew in space and mission managers in Houston to spend more time than expected pursuing fixes mid-mission. Here is an explanation of potential paths forward for Starliner and its veteran NASA astronauts, Barry "Butch" Wilmore and Sunita "Suni" Williams. THE CURRENT SITUATION Starliner can stay docked at the ISS for up to 45 days, according to comments by NASA's commercial crew manager Steve Stich to reporters. But if absolutely necessary, such as if more problems arise that mission officials cannot fix in time, it could stay docked for up to 72 days, relying on various backup systems, according to a person familiar with flight planning. Internally at NASA, Starliner's latest targeted return date is July 6, according to this source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Such a return date would mean that the mission, originally planned for eight days, instead would last a month. Starliner's expendable propulsion system is part of the craft's "service module." The current problems center on this system, which is needed to back the capsule away from the ISS and position it to dive through Earth's atmosphere. Many of Starliner's thrusters have overheated when fired, and the leaks of helium - used to pressurize the thrusters - appear to be connected to how frequently they are used, according to Stich.