A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall. Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%. With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet. But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%. There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony. The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday. Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%. Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%. The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption. Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.

New York CNN — A record number of passengers are expected to pass through US airports this holiday travel week. You’d think this would be a great time to run an airline. You’d be wrong. Airlines face numerous problems, including higher costs, such as fuel, wages and interest rates. And problems at Boeing mean airlines have too few planes to expand routes to support a record numbers of flyers. Strong bookings can’t entirely offset that financial squeeze. The good news for passengers is they will be spared most of the problems hurting airlines’ bottom lines — at least in the near term. Airfares are driven far more by supply and demand, not their costs. But in the long run, the airlines’ difficulties could mean fewer airline routes, less passenger choice and ultimately a less pleasant flying experience. Profit squeeze Industry analysts expect airlines to report a drop of about $2 billion in profit, or 33%, when they report financial results for the April to June period this year. That would follow losses of nearly $800 million across the industry in the first quarter. Labor costs and jet fuel prices, the airlines’ two largest costs, are both sharply higher this year. Airline pilot unions just landed double-digit pay hikes to make up for years of stagnant wages; flight attendant unions now want comparable raises. Jet fuel prices are climbing because of higher demand in the summer. According to the International Air Transport Association’s jet fuel monitor, prices are up 1.4% in just the last week, and about 4% in the last month. Adding to the airlines’ problems is the crisis at Boeing, as well as the less-well-publicized problems with some of the jet engines on planes from rival Airbus. Since an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max jet lost a door plug on a January 5 flight, leaving a gaping hole in the side of the plane 10 minutes after takeoff, the Federal Aviation Administration has limited how many jets Boeing can make over concerns about quality and safety. As a result, airlines have dramatically reduced plans to expand their fleets and replace older planes with more fuel efficient models. In some cases, airlines have asked pilots to take time off without pay, and carriers such as Southwest and United have announced pilot hiring freezes. In addition to the problems at Boeing, hundreds of the Airbus A220 and A320 family of jets globally have also been grounded for at least a month or more to deal with engine problems. Just about all the planes with those engines have been out of sevice for at least a few days to undergo examinations. And Airbus has also cut back the number of planes it expects to deliver to airlines this year because of supply chain problems. Problems for flyers For now, competition in the industry remains fierce: There are 6% more seats available this month compared to July of 2023, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. And that’s helped to drive fares down — good news for passengers, but more bad news for airlines’ profits. Southwest announced in April that it would stop serving four airports to trim costs — Bellingham International Airport in Washington state, Cozumel International Airport in Mexico, Syracuse Hancock International Airport in New York and Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport. Many more cities lost air service during the financial hard times of the pandemic. While upstart airlines are driving prices lower for travelers, those discount carriers might not survive long term. As the major carriers are making less money, many of the upstarts are flat-out losing money.

According to AndroidAuthority, the Linux kernel used by Android devices is mostly derived from Google's Android Universal Kernel (ACK) branch, which is created from the Android mainline kernel branch when new LTS versions are released upstream. For example, when kernel version 6.6 is announced as the latest LTS release, an ACK branch for Android15-6.6 appears shortly after, with the "android15" in the name referring to the Android version of the kernel (in this case, Android 15). Google maintains its own set of LTS kernel branches for three main reasons. First, Google can integrate upstream features that have not yet been released into the ACK branch by backporting or picking, so as to meet the specific needs of Android. Second, Google can include some features that are being developed upstream in the ACK branch ahead of time, making it available for Android devices as early as possible. Finally, Google can add some vendor or original equipment manufacturer (OEM) features for other Android partners to use. Once created, Google continues to update the ACK branch to include not only bug fixes for Android specific code, but also to integrate the LTS merge content of the upstream kernel branch. For example, the Linux kernel vulnerability disclosed in the July 2024 Android security bulletin will be fixed through these updates. However, it is not easy to distinguish a bug fix from other bug fixes, as a patch that fixes a bug may also accidentally plug a security vulnerability that the submitter did not know about or chose not to disclose. Google does its best to recognize this, but it inevitably misses the mark, resulting in bug fixes for the upstream Linux kernel being released months before Android devices. As a result, Google has been urging Android vendors to regularly update the LTS kernel to avoid being caught off guard by unexpectedly disclosed security vulnerabilities. Clearly, the LTS version of the Linux kernel is critical to the security of Android devices, helping Google and vendors deal with known and unknown security vulnerabilities. The longer the support period, the more timely security updates Google and vendors can provide to devices.

July 9 (Reuters) - Futures linked to Canada's main stock index rose on the back of metal prices on Tuesday, while investors awaited U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on monetary policy later in the day. The S&P/TSX 60 futures were up 0.25% by 06:28 a.m. ET (1028 GMT). The Toronto Stock Exchange's materials sector was set to re Oil futures , dipped as fears over supply disruption eased after Hurricane Beryl, which hit major refineries along with the U.S. Gulf Coast, caused minimal impact. Markets will be heavily focussed on Powell's two-day monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, starting at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT), which can help investors gauge the Fed's rate-cut path. Following last week's softer jobs data, market participants are now pricing in a 77% chance of a rate cut by the U.S. central bank in September. The main macro event for the markets this week will be the U.S. consumer prices data due on Thursday, which can help assess the trajectory of inflation in the world' biggest economy. Wall Street futures were also up on Tuesday after the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab and Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab touched record closing highs in the previous session. In Canada, fears of the economy slipping into recession advanced after the latest data showed that the unemployment rate rose to a 29-month high in June. Traders are now pricing in a 65% chance of another cut by the Bank of Canada, which already trimmed interest rates last month. In corporate news, Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO), opens new tab said it is demobilizing some staff at its Sunrise oil sands project in northern Alberta as a precaution due to the evolving wildfire situation in the area.

On July 8, local time, former British Prime Minister Sunak announced the appointment of the Conservative Party Shadow Cabinet, which is the first shadow cabinet of the Conservative Party in 14 years. Several former British cabinet members during Sunak's tenure as prime minister were appointed to the Conservative Party Shadow Cabinet, including James Cleverly as Shadow Home Secretary and Jeremy Hunt as Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer. But former Foreign Secretary Cameron was not appointed as Shadow Foreign Secretary. In addition, the new leader of the Conservative Party will be elected as early as this week. On July 4, the UK held a parliamentary election. The counting results showed that the British Labour Party won more than half of the seats and won an overwhelming victory; the Conservative Party suffered a disastrous defeat, ending its 14-year continuous rule.