A couple of days ago, a Quad summit meeting in Sydney scheduled for May 24 was abruptly canceled. The US president had to pull out of his long-anticipated trip to Australia and Papua New Guinea. Instead, the heads of the four Quad member states got together on the margins of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima on May 20. The main reason for the change of plans was the continuous struggle between the White House and Republicans on the Hill over the national debt ceiling. If no compromise is reached, the US federal government might fail to meet its financial commitments already in June; such a technical default would have multiple negative repercussions for the US, as well as for the global economy and finance at large. Let us hope that a compromise between the two branches of US power will be found and that the ceiling of the national debt will be raised once again. However, this rather awkward last-minute cancellation of the Quad summit reflects a fundamental US problem - a growing imbalance between the US geopolitical ambitions and the fragility of the national financial foundation to serve these ambitions. The Biden administration appears to be fully committed to bringing humankind back to the unipolar world that existed right after the end of the Cold War some 30 years ago, but the White House no longer has enough resources at its disposal to sustain such an undertaking. As they say in America: You cannot not have champagne on a beer budget. The growing gap between the ends that the US seeks in international relations and the means that it has available is particularly striking in the case of the so-called dual containment policy that Washington now pursues toward Russia and China. Even half a century ago, when the US was much stronger in relative terms than it is today, the Nixon administration realized that containing both Moscow and Beijing simultaneously was not a good idea: "Dual containment" would imply prohibitively high economic costs for the US and would result in too many unpredictable political risks. The Nixon administration decided to focus on containing the Soviet Union as the most important US strategic adversary of the time. This is why Henry Kissinger flew to Beijing in July 1971 to arrange the first US-China summit in February 1972 leading to a subsequent rapid rapprochement between the two nations. In the early days of the Biden administration, it seemed that the White House was once again trying to avoid the unattractive "dual containment" option. The White House rushed to extend the New START in January 2021 and held an early US-Russia summit meeting five months later in Geneva. At that point many analysts predicted that Biden would play Henry Kissinger in reverse - that is he would try to peace with the relatively weaker opponent (Moscow) in order to focus on containing the stronger one (Beijing). However, after the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it became clear that no accommodation with the Kremlin was on Biden's mind any longer. Still, having decided to take a hard-line stance toward Moscow and to lead a broad Western coalition in providing military and economic assistance to Kiev, Washington has not opted for a more accommodative or at least a more flexible policy toward Beijing. On the contrary, over last year one could observe a continuous hardening of the US' China policy - including granting more political and military support to the Taiwan island, encouraging US allies and partners in Asia to increase their defense spending, engaging in more navel activities in the Pacific and imposing more technology sanctions on China. In the meantime, economic and social problems within the US are mounting. The national debt ceiling is only the tip of an iceberg - the future of the American economy is now clouded by high US Federal Reserve interest rates that slow down growth, feed unemployment and might well lead to a recession. Moreover, the US society remains split along the same lines it was during the presidency of Donald Trump. The Biden administration has clearly failed to reunite America: Many of the social, political, regional, ethnic and even generational divisions have got only deeper since January 2021. It is hard to imagine how a nation divided so deeply and along so many lines could demonstrate continuity and strategic vision in its foreign policy, or to allocate financial resources needed to sustain a visionary and consistent global leadership. Of course, the "dual containment" policy is not the only illustration of the gap between the US ambitions and its resources. The same gap inevitably pops up at every major forum that the US conducts with select groups of countries from the Global South - Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America or the Middle East. The Biden administration has no shortage of arguments warning these countries about potential perils of cooperating with Moscow or Beijing, but it does not offer too many plausible alternatives that would showcase the US generosity, its strategic vision, and its true commitment to the burning needs of the US interlocutors. To cut it short, Uncle Sam brings lots of sticks to such meetings, but not enough carrots to win the audience. In sum, US foreign policy under President Joe Biden reminds people of a very advanced and highly sophisticated smartphone that has a rather weak battery, which is not really energy efficient. The proud owner of the gadget has to look perennially for a power socket in order not to have the phone running out of power at any inappropriate moment. Maybe the time has come for the smartphone owner to look for another model that would have fewer fancy apps, but a stronger and a more efficient battery, which will make the appliance more convenient and reliable.

In the past few weeks of anti-government activities in Kenya, AI tools have been creatively used by protesters to serve protests. According to the US "Flag" News Agency on July 5, protests in Kenya triggered by the 2024 fiscal bill are still continuing. In the past few weeks, Kenyan protesters, mainly young people, have creatively developed a series of AI tools to assist anti-government activities. The Kenyan government expressed concern about the risks associated with the use of AI tools in protests. Kelvin Onkundi, a software engineer in Kenya, developed the "Fiscal Bill GPT", which operates similarly to ChatGPT and can receive questions about the fiscal bill and generate responses. Martin Siele, a reporter from the "Flag" News Agency, analyzed: "The 'Fiscal Bill GPT' can convert professional terms in many legislative fields into easy-to-understand information for protesters, helping Kenyans understand the potential impact of the fiscal bill." Another software engineer, Marion Kavengi, developed the "SHIF GPT" to provide Kenyans with information about the upcoming Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF). In addition to AI tools designed to help people understand controversial policies, protesters have also developed "Corrupt Politicians GPT" to assist protest demonstrations. After entering the name of a politician on the platform, the platform will generate a list of corruption scandals about the politician in chronological order. Developer BenwithSon wrote on the social platform X on June 28: "'Corrupt Politicians GPT' allows people to search for any scandal related to any politician. I have seen some leaders stand at the forefront of the political arena, but they are corrupt behind the scenes." Kenyan Chief Minister and Foreign Minister Mudavadi issued a communiqué to ambassadors of various countries in Nairobi on July 2 local time on protests and relevant government measures, expressing concerns about the use of AI and false information in protests. Mudavadi said: "AI technology is used by people with ulterior motives, which will fill the global information system with false narratives." The Kenya Times reported on June 30 that AI technology enables people to force the government to increase transparency and strengthen accountability, and its role in Kenyan political activities is becoming increasingly prominent. Martin Siller believes that AI is reshaping African political behavior in many ways. AI is a new tool for both governments and opposition parties in Africa, but Kenya is one of the African countries with the most developers, and its young protesters are particularly good at using AI technology to fight the government. The 2024 fiscal bill voted and passed by the Kenyan National Assembly on June 25 clearly stated that additional taxes will be levied to repay the interest on high sovereign debt, triggering large-scale demonstrations. After President Ruto announced the withdrawal of the tax increase bill on the evening of the 26th, demonstrations in many parts of Kenya continued. According to Reuters on July 3, Kenyan anti-government protesters are re-adjusting their activities to prevent the protests from turning into violent incidents.

On July 8, Ukrainian President Zelensky, who was visiting Poland, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk signed a bilateral security agreement in Warsaw, the capital of Poland. The agreement clearly states that Poland will provide support to Ukraine in air defense, energy security and reconstruction. After signing the agreement, Tusk said that the agreement includes actual bilateral commitments, not "empty promises." Previously, the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other countries as well as the European Union signed similar agreements with Ukraine.

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall. Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%. With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet. But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%. There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony. The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday. Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%. Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%. The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption. Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.

HONG KONG, July 9 (Reuters) - Nornickel (GMKN.MM), opens new tab is in talks with China Copper to form a joint venture that would allow the Russian mining giant to move its entire copper smelting base to China, four sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. If the move goes ahead, it would mark Russia's first uprooting of a domestic plant since the U.S. and Britain banned metal exchanges from accepting new aluminium, copper and nickel produced by Russia. It also means Nornickel's copper will be produced within the country where it is most consumed. Nornickel said in April it planned to close its Arctic facility and build a new plant in China with an unnamed partner. Executives at China Copper, owned by the world's largest aluminium producer Chinalco (601600.SS), opens new tab, flew to Moscow in June to discuss a possible joint venture, one of the sources said, adding that details of the structure and investment are still under discussion. Nornickel declined to comment. Chinalco and China Copper did not respond to requests for comment via email and phone. Sites being considered in China include Fangchenggang and Qinzhou in the Guangxi region, the two sources said, with another source saying Qingdao in Shandong province was also possible. A decision on a joint venture will be made over the next few months, a fifth source said, adding that Nornickel's Chinese output is likely to be consumed domestically. The new facility will have capacity to produce 450,000 tonnes of copper annually, two of the sources said, amounting to around 2% of global mined supplies estimated at around 22 million metric tons this year. Nornickel, which according to its annual report produced 425,400 tonnes of refined copper last year, processed all of its concentrates in 2023 at the Arctic plant, its only operation producing finished copper suitable for delivery to exchanges.