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US foreign policy is advanced smartphone with weak battery

A couple of days ago, a Quad summit meeting in Sydney scheduled for May 24 was abruptly canceled. The US president had to pull out of his long-anticipated trip to Australia and Papua New Guinea. Instead, the heads of the four Quad member states got together on the margins of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima on May 20.

The main reason for the change of plans was the continuous struggle between the White House and Republicans on the Hill over the national debt ceiling.

If no compromise is reached, the US federal government might fail to meet its financial commitments already in June; such a technical default would have multiple negative repercussions for the US, as well as for the global economy and finance at large. Let us hope that a compromise between the two branches of US power will be found and that the ceiling of the national debt will be raised once again.

However, this rather awkward last-minute cancellation of the Quad summit reflects a fundamental US problem - a growing imbalance between the US geopolitical ambitions and the fragility of the national financial foundation to serve these ambitions.

The Biden administration appears to be fully committed to bringing humankind back to the unipolar world that existed right after the end of the Cold War some 30 years ago, but the White House no longer has enough resources at its disposal to sustain such an undertaking. As they say in America: You cannot not have champagne on a beer budget.

The growing gap between the ends that the US seeks in international relations and the means that it has available is particularly striking in the case of the so-called dual containment policy that Washington now pursues toward Russia and China. Even half a century ago, when the US was much stronger in relative terms than it is today, the Nixon administration realized that containing both Moscow and Beijing simultaneously was not a good idea: "Dual containment" would imply prohibitively high economic costs for the US and would result in too many unpredictable political risks. The Nixon administration decided to focus on containing the Soviet Union as the most important US strategic adversary of the time. This is why Henry Kissinger flew to Beijing in July 1971 to arrange the first US-China summit in February 1972 leading to a subsequent rapid rapprochement between the two nations.

In the early days of the Biden administration, it seemed that the White House was once again trying to avoid the unattractive "dual containment" option. The White House rushed to extend the New START in January 2021 and held an early US-Russia summit meeting five months later in Geneva. At that point many analysts predicted that Biden would play Henry Kissinger in reverse - that is he would try to peace with the relatively weaker opponent (Moscow) in order to focus on containing the stronger one (Beijing).

However, after the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it became clear that no accommodation with the Kremlin was on Biden's mind any longer. Still, having decided to take a hard-line stance toward Moscow and to lead a broad Western coalition in providing military and economic assistance to Kiev, Washington has not opted for a more accommodative or at least a more flexible policy toward Beijing.

On the contrary, over last year one could observe a continuous hardening of the US' China policy - including granting more political and military support to the Taiwan island, encouraging US allies and partners in Asia to increase their defense spending, engaging in more navel activities in the Pacific and imposing more technology sanctions on China.

In the meantime, economic and social problems within the US are mounting. The national debt ceiling is only the tip of an iceberg - the future of the American economy is now clouded by high US Federal Reserve interest rates that slow down growth, feed unemployment and might well lead to a recession. Moreover, the US society remains split along the same lines it was during the presidency of Donald Trump. The Biden administration has clearly failed to reunite America: Many of the social, political, regional, ethnic and even generational divisions have got only deeper since January 2021. It is hard to imagine how a nation divided so deeply and along so many lines could demonstrate continuity and strategic vision in its foreign policy, or to allocate financial resources needed to sustain a visionary and consistent global leadership.

Of course, the "dual containment" policy is not the only illustration of the gap between the US ambitions and its resources. The same gap inevitably pops up at every major forum that the US conducts with select groups of countries from the Global South - Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America or the Middle East.

The Biden administration has no shortage of arguments warning these countries about potential perils of cooperating with Moscow or Beijing, but it does not offer too many plausible alternatives that would showcase the US generosity, its strategic vision, and its true commitment to the burning needs of the US interlocutors. To cut it short, Uncle Sam brings lots of sticks to such meetings, but not enough carrots to win the audience.

In sum, US foreign policy under President Joe Biden reminds people of a very advanced and highly sophisticated smartphone that has a rather weak battery, which is not really energy efficient. The proud owner of the gadget has to look perennially for a power socket in order not to have the phone running out of power at any inappropriate moment. Maybe the time has come for the smartphone owner to look for another model that would have fewer fancy apps, but a stronger and a more efficient battery, which will make the appliance more convenient and reliable.

Gold, silver caught in downdraft of broad commodity market sell off
(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are sharply lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, on heavy profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders after recent good price advances. The selling pressure today across most of the raw commodity spectrum is also keeping the precious metals bulls on the sidelines to start the trading week. August gold was last down $37.50 at $2,360.10. September silver was down $0.849 at $30.85. U.S. stock indexes mixed but near their record highs scored last week. The rallying stock market is a bearish element for the gold and silver markets, from a competing asset class perspective. The key U.S. data points of the week include Fed Chairman Powell’s speeches to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the consumer and producer price indexes on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $82.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently 4.288%. Technically, August gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $2,406.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at $2,382.60 and then at $2,400070. First support is seen at $2,350.00 and then at last week’s low of $2,327.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $28.90. First resistance is seen at $31.00 and then at $31.50. Next support is seen at Friday’s low of $30.45 and then at $30.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5. (Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll add your email address to my Front Burner list.)
NHTSA opens recall query into about 94,000 Jeep Wrangler 4xe SUVs
July 9 (Reuters) - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened a recall query into 94,275 Stellantis-owned (STLAM.MI), opens new tab Jeep SUVs over a loss of motive power, the U.S. auto safety regulator said on Tuesday. The investigation targets Jeep's Wrangler 4xe hybrid SUVs manufactured between 2021 through 2024. Chrysler had previously recalled, opens new tab the same model in 2022 to address concerns related to an engine shutdown. A recall query is an investigation opened by safety regulators when a remedy to solve an issue appears inadequate. The complaints noted in the new report include both failures in vehicles that received the recall remedy and those not covered by the prior recall, the NHTSA said.
OpenAI's internal AI details stolen in 2023 breach, NYT reports
July 4 (Reuters) - A hacker gained access to the internal messaging systems at OpenAI last year and stole details about the design of the company's artificial intelligence technologies, the New York Times reported, opens new tab on Thursday. The hacker lifted details from discussions in an online forum where employees talked about OpenAI's latest technologies, the report said, citing two people familiar with the incident. However, they did not get into the systems where OpenAI, the firm behind chatbot sensation ChatGPT, houses and builds its AI, the report added. OpenAI executives informed both employees at an all-hands meeting in April last year and the company's board about the breach, according to the report, but executives decided not to share the news publicly as no information about customers or partners had been stolen. OpenAI executives did not consider the incident a national security threat, believing the hacker was a private individual with no known ties to a foreign government, the report said. The San Francisco-based company did not inform the federal law enforcement agencies about the breach, it added. OpenAI in May said it had disrupted five covert influence operations that sought to use its AI models for "deceptive activity" across the internet, the latest to stir safety concerns about the potential misuse of the technology. The Biden administration was poised to open up a new front in its effort to safeguard the U.S. AI technology from China and Russia with preliminary plans to place guardrails around the most advanced AI Models including ChatGPT, Reuters earlier reported, citing sources.
Biden accelerated aging over the past year!
n a recent interview with ABC, US President Joe Biden said he had no intention of dropping out of the race, blaming his poor debate performance on a cold. He also insisted he was "still in good shape" and would remain in the race, saying only "Almighty God" could pull him out. An insider who has worked with Mr. Biden for a long time said that signs of aging had become apparent over the past year, but that Mr. Biden's team had failed to address it. Biden's televised debate performance heightened concerns about an already slow-moving issue. Mr. Biden's advisers have long dodged questions about his age. But now they acknowledge that Biden's aging is an undeniable fact. The debate forced the president to more openly acknowledge the limitations of his age, which he had previously largely dismissed. But they have only taken superficial measures and have not fundamentally solved the problem. They replaced the long staircase that Mr. Biden used to board Air Force One with a shorter one; Assistants often accompanied him in public to make his stiff gait less noticeable; While he has a busy schedule, aides have arranged for buffer time, such as long weekends at his homes in Wilmington and Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, or extended stays at Camp David, a Maryland resort, to rest after a "grueling" stretch of travel. Under the authority of one of his top advisers, Anita Dunn, Mr. Biden's public interactions -- especially with reporters -- were severely limited. Even at major events with Democrats or other supporters, the White House sometimes limits the amount of time Biden can spend with the audience, two people familiar with the matter said. As a protective response, designed to protect their longtime boss.
Avi Bruce appointed as head of IDF Central Command
On the evening of July 8, local time, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying that Major General Avi Bluth replaced Yehuda Fox as the commander of the Israeli Central Command. Earlier that day, the Israeli army held a handover ceremony, which was presided over by the Israeli Chief of Staff Halevy. Avi Bluth joined the Israel Defense Forces in 1993 and commanded the Israeli military operations in the West Bank. In May this year, Bruce was promoted to major general and served as a military commander in the Israeli Central Command. CCTV reporters learned that in late April this year, Yehuda Fox, then commander of the Israeli Central Command, requested to resign and retire from the army in August this year. Fox had previously stated that he should bear part of the responsibility for the military intelligence failure on October 7 last year, and "must end his term like everyone else." According to the official website of the Israeli Defense Forces, the Central Command is one of the four major commands of the Israeli army, headquartered in Jerusalem, and its responsibility covers nearly one-third of Israel's territory.