(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are sharply lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, on heavy profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders after recent good price advances. The selling pressure today across most of the raw commodity spectrum is also keeping the precious metals bulls on the sidelines to start the trading week. August gold was last down $37.50 at $2,360.10. September silver was down $0.849 at $30.85. U.S. stock indexes mixed but near their record highs scored last week. The rallying stock market is a bearish element for the gold and silver markets, from a competing asset class perspective. The key U.S. data points of the week include Fed Chairman Powell’s speeches to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the consumer and producer price indexes on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $82.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently 4.288%. Technically, August gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $2,406.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at $2,382.60 and then at $2,400070. First support is seen at $2,350.00 and then at last week’s low of $2,327.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $28.90. First resistance is seen at $31.00 and then at $31.50. Next support is seen at Friday’s low of $30.45 and then at $30.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5. (Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll add your email address to my Front Burner list.)

The Sun is extremely active right now, blasting the Earth with the biggest solar storms in 20 years. This is what it is doing to the rest of the Solar System. If you happened to look skywards on a few nights in May 2024, there was a good chance of seeing something spectacular. For those at relatively low latitudes, there was a rare chance to see the flickering red, pink, green glow of our planet's aurorae. A powerful solar storm had sent bursts of charged particles barrelling towards Earth and, as they bounced around in our planet's atmosphere, they unleashed spectacular displays of the Northern and Southern Lights. The dazzling displays of aurora borealis were visible far further south than they might normally be – and far further north in the case of aurora australis thanks to the power of the geomagnetic storm, the strongest in two decades. Although some people experienced only a faint, eerie glow, others were treated to a myriad of colour as far south as London in the UK and Ohio in the US. Reports even came in from just to the north of San Francisco, California. But while this spike in activity from the Sun left many on Earth transfixed by the light display it produced, it has also had a profound effect elsewhere in the Solar System. As most of us wondered at the colours dancing across the night's sky, astronomers have been peering far beyond to see the strange ways such intense bursts of particles affect other planets and the space between them. "The Sun can fire material outwards in any direction like a garden sprinkler," says Jim Wild, a professor of space physics at Lancaster University in the UK. "The effects are felt throughout the Solar System." Our Sun is currently heading towards, or has already reached, its solar maximum – the point in an 11-year cycle where it is most active. This means the Sun produces more bursts of radiation and particles from solar flares and events known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). If these are sprayed in our direction, they can supercharge the Earth's magnetic field, causing magnificent aurorae but also posing problems for satellites and power grids. "Things really seem to be picking up right now," says Mathew Owens, a space physicist at the University of Reading in the UK. "I think we're about at solar maximum now, so we may see more of these kinds of storms in the next couple of years." Around the Sun, multiple spacecraft are observing this increase in activity up close. One of those, the European Space Agency's (Esa) Solar Orbiter, has been studying the Sun since 2020 on an orbit that takes it within the path of Mercury. Currently the spacecraft is "on the far side of the Sun as seen from Earth", says Daniel Müller, project scientist for the Solar Orbiter mission at Esa in the Netherlands. "So we see everything that Earth doesn't see." The storm that hit Earth in May originated from an active region of solar flares and sunspots, bursts of plasma and twisting magnetic fields on the Sun's surface, known as its photosphere. Solar Orbiter was able to see "several of the flares from this monster active region that rotated out of Earth's view", says Müller, bright flashes of light and darkened regions called sunspots on the Sun's surface. One of the goals of Solar Orbiter is "to connect what's happening on the Sun to what's happening in the heliosphere," says Müller. The heliosphere is a vast bubble of plasma that envelops the Sun and the planets of the Solar System as it travels through interstellar space. What Müller and his colleagues hope to learn more about is where the solar wind – the constant stream of particles spilling out from the Sun across the Solar System – "blows into the interstellar medium", he says. "So we are particularly interested in anything energetic on the Sun that we can find back in the turbulence of the solar wind." This particular cycle, cycle 25, appears to be "significantly more active than what people predicted", says Müller, with the relative sunspot number – an index used to measure the activity across the visible surface of the Sun – eclipsing what was seen as the peak of the previous solar cycle. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) in the US had predicted a maximum monthly average of 124 sunspots a day in May, but the actual number was 170 on average, with one day exceeding 240, according to Müller. But the exact cause of the Sun's 11-year-long cycle and its variabilities remains a bit of a mystery. • Alien aurora: The strange displays that light up other worlds • Why Einstein was wrong about black holes • The Moon is slipping away from the Earth – and our days are getting longer The effects of these changes in solar activity, however, extend far across the Solar System. Earth is not the only planet to be hit by solar storms as they billow across interplanetary space. Mercury, the closest planet to the Sun, has a much weaker magnetic field than Earth – about 100 times less – and lacks a substantial atmosphere. But solar activity can cause the surface of the planet to glow with X-rays as solar wind rains down. Venus also lacks a substantial magnetic field, but the planet does still create auroras as the solar wind interacts with the planet's ionosphere. At Mars, the effect of solar activity is more obvious. Here, a Nasa spacecraft called Maven (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution) has been studying the planet's atmosphere from orbit since 2014. "We were on the declining side of solar cycle 24 [then]," says Shannon Curry, a planetary scientist at the University of Colorado, Boulder in the US and the lead on the mission. "We are now coming up on the peak of cycle 25, and this latest series of active regions has produced the strongest activity Maven has ever seen." Between 14 and 20 May the spacecraft detected exceptionally powerful solar activity reaching Mars, including an X8.7 – solar flares are ranked B, C, M, and X in order from weakest to strongest. Results from the event have yet to be studied, but Curry noted that a previous X8.2 flare had resulted in "a dozen papers" published in scientific journals. Another flare on 20 May, later estimated to be an even bigger X12, hurled X-rays and gamma rays towards Mars before a subsequent coronal mass ejection launched a barrage of charged particles in the same direction. Images beamed back from Nasa's Curiosity Rover on Mars revealed just now much energy struck the Martian surface. Streaks and dots caused by charged particles hitting the camera's sensors caused the images to "dance with snow", according to a press release from Nasa. Maven, meanwhile, captured glowing aurora as the particles hit the Mars' atmosphere, engulfing the entire planet in an ultraviolet glow. The flares can cause the temperature of the Martian atmosphere to "dramatically increase," says Curry. "It can even double in the upper atmosphere. The atmosphere itself inflates. The entire atmosphere expands dozens of kilometres – exciting for scientists but detrimental for spacecraft, because when the atmosphere expands there's more drag on the spacecraft." The expanding atmosphere can also cause degradation of the solar panels on spacecraft orbiting Mars from the increase in radiation. "The last two flares caused more degradation than what a third of a year would typically do," says Curry. Mars, while it has lost most of its magnetic field, still has "crustal remnant magnetic fields, little bubbles all over the southern hemisphere", says Curry. During a solar event, charged particles can light those up and excite particles. "The entire day side lights up in what we call a diffuse aurora," says Curry. "The entire sky glows. This would most likely be visible to astronauts on the surface." By the time solar storms reach further out into the solar system, they tend to have dissipated but can still have an impact on the planets they encounter. Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune all have aurorae that are in part driven by charged particles from the Sun interacting with their magnetic fields. But one of the key effects of solar activity on interplanetary space that astronomers are eager to study is something called "slow solar wind", a more sluggish, but denser stream of charged particles and plasma from the Sun. Steph Yardley, a solar astronomer at Northumbria University in the UK, says solar wind is "generally classed about 500km/s (310 miles/s)", but slow wind falls below this. It also has a lower temperature and tends to be more volatile. Recent work by Yardley and her colleagues, using data from Solar Orbiter, suggests that the Sun's atmosphere, its corona, plays a role in the speed of the solar wind. Regions where the magnetic field lines, the direction of the field and charged particles are "open" – stretching out into space without looping back – provide a highway for solar wind to reach high speeds. Closed loops over some active regions – where the magnetic field lines have no beginning and end – can occasionally snap, producing slow solar wind. The variability in the slow solar wind seems to be driven by the unpredictable flow of plasma inside the Sun, which makes the magnetic field particularly chaotic. The X-class flares and coronal mass ejections seen in May transformed the interplanetary medium as they flung out material across the solar system. Solar Orbiter detected a huge spike in ions moving at thousands of kilometres per second immediately after the 20 May flare. Computers on board other spacecraft – the BepiColombo probe, which is currently on a seven-year journey to Mercury, and Mars Express, in orbit around the Red Planet – both saw a dramatic increase in the number of memory errors caused by the high energy solar particles hitting the memory cells. The day after the coronal mass ejection, magnetometers on board the Solar Orbiter also saw large swings in the magnetic field around the spacecraft as a huge bubble of plasma made up of charged particles thrown out from by the event washed past it at 1,400km/s (870 miles/s). Increased solar activity is a boon for scientists. "If you track the number of papers produced by solar physicists, you can almost see an 11-year cycle in there," says Owens. "We are all more scientifically productive when there's a lot of activity to study." As the Sun continues into solar maximum, the Solar System will see more and more activity streaming from its surface. Yet while all the planets witness at least some of the activity, our planet bears the brunt more than most. "Earth is slightly unique in that space weather can have interesting effects on human technologies," says Wild. "There's an extra dimension here on Earth." Perhaps one day those anthropogenic effects might be felt elsewhere, too. "If you're going to fly to Mars and you have a six-month flight through the interplanetary environment, you're going to potentially suck up a lot of space weather events," says Wild. "How you protect your astronauts is an interplanetary issue that we need to get our heads around."

AIRO, July 8 (Reuters) - A new Israeli assault on Gaza on Monday threatened ceasefire talks at a crucial moment, the head of Hamas said, as Israeli tanks pressed into the heart of Gaza City and ordered residents out after a night of massive bombardment. Residents said the airstrikes and artillery barrages were among the heaviest in nine months of conflict between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in the enclave. Thousands fled. The assault unfolded as senior U.S. officials were in the region pushing for a ceasefire after Hamas made major concessions last week. The militant group said the new offensive appeared intended to derail the talks and called for mediators to rein in Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The assault "could bring the negotiation process back to square one. Netanyahu and his army will bear full responsibility for the collapse of this path," Hamas quoted leader Ismail Haniyeh as saying. Gaza City, in the north of the Palestinian enclave, was one of Israel's first targets at the start of the war in October. But clashes with militants there have persisted and civilians have sought shelter elsewhere, adding to waves of displacement. Much of the city lies in ruins. Residents said Gaza City neighbourhoods were bombed through the night into the early morning hours of Monday. Several multi-storey buildings were destroyed, they said. The Gaza Civil Emergency Service said it believed dozens of people were killed but emergency teams were unable to reach them because of ongoing offensives. Gaza residents said tanks advanced from at least three directions on Monday and reached the heart of Gaza City, backed by heavy Israeli fire from the air and ground. That forced thousands of people out of their homes to look for safer shelter, which for many was impossible to find, and some slept on the roadside.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared at the Munich Security Conference: "If you're not at the table in the international system, you're going to be on the menu." The arrogant thinking of American political elites is evident: Whoever does not comply with the US will be excluded from the table of the American-led system and put on the menu. How arrogant. The US is actively pushing for "decoupling" from China and trying to persuade the entire West to "decouple" from China, using the term "de-risking." Washington hopes to ultimately contain China's development in order to maintain American hegemony. However, this time, Washington is facing a historically experienced and strategically rich Eastern civilization. Previous opponents targeted by the US have chosen to confront the US strategically. The US not only has the strongest technological and military capabilities but also controls global financial and information networks with a large number of allies. Those countries that had engaged in direct confrontations had suffered losses. Some of them had disintegrated, some had been weakened, and some had fallen into difficulties. However, what Washington sees from China is strategic composure and resilience. China is now staging an unprecedented and grand "Tai Chi." However, some Chinese people feel that this is not enough: Why can't we confront the US head-on? But I want to say that this is precisely the brilliance of China. This grand "Tai Chi" is about dismantling the pressure the US is putting on China. Europe is different from the US. A European diplomat once said in private that the topic of China has become toxic in the US, but in Europe, it is still possible to openly display friendliness toward China. There is genuine competition between the Europe and China despite Europe leans more toward the US between China and the US. Only in terms of ideology does the term "West" truly exist. In terms of fundamental economic interests, Europe has considerable independence. In terms of security, their attitude toward China also differs greatly from that of the US. In the Asia-Pacific region or China's periphery, the US wants to create an "Asian NATO." The specific situations of countries in dispute with China are very different. China has enormous influence in the region, is the largest trading partner of the vast majority of countries in the region and has friendly relations with most countries in the region. The disputes with countries are not fundamental strategic conflicts, and China has the ability to manage disputes with each specific country and push them to move toward neutrality to varying degrees without being tied to the US' policy toward China. China has a lot of trading partners and stakeholders in the US. The trade volume between China and the US, despite the decline, reached $664.4 billion in 2023, which shows China's huge presence in the US, and is the bond of the two countries in the current situation. The US is not a country where the political elites can have absolute say, and the huge interests have forced the US president and senior officials to repeatedly proclaim that they "don't want to decouple from China" and instead they want to "manage the US-China competition" and see "preventing a war with China" as clearly in everyone's best interest. China should engage in a "strategic battle" with the US at the closest possible distance. We need to maintain friendly relations with certain forces within the US, speed up the resumption of flights between the two countries, increase personnel exchanges and completely reverse the downturn of China-US contacts during the pandemic. In addition to the above dismantling, we also have the huge increment in the "Belt and Road." This initiative will increase China's power to compete with the US, greatly extending the front line that the US needs to maintain in containing China, making the US more powerless. In order to dismantle the US strategy toward China, China must become more diversified while maintaining strategic consistency. Our national diplomacy toward the US is very principled, rational and determined, which is clearly different from other countries targeted by the US. Our public diplomacy toward the US needs to be unique, with both "anti-American voices" and efforts to maintain friendly relations between the two societies and further expand economic and practical cooperation with the US. Just as eagles have their own way of flying and doves have their own formation, just as we see the US as complex, China must also be seen as complex in the eyes of the US. China is both a geopolitical concern and a profitable investment destination for them, and is one of the largest trading partners that is difficult to replace. Some American political elites proclaim China as an "enemy," but it is important to make the majority of Americans feel that China is not. No matter how intense the struggles between China and the US may be, we cannot shape the entire US toward an enemy direction. China has to make the US political elites recognize that it is futile to deal with China in the same way as it historically dealt with the Soviet Union and other major powers. Furthermore, willingly or unwillingly, coexistence and cooperation with China will be their only choice.

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money - and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall. Thursday's U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors - with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with 'core' rates still stuck at 3.4%. With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starting his two-pronged semi-annual congressional testimony later on Tuesday, the consensus CPI forecast probably reflects what the central bank thinks of the situation right now - encouraging but not there yet. But as the U.S. unemployment rate is now back above 4.0% for the first time since late 2021, markets may look for a more nuanced approach from the Fed chair that sees it increasingly wary of a sudden weakening of the labor market as real time quarterly GDP estimates ebb again to about 1.5%. There were some other reasons for Fed optimism in the lead up to the testimony. The path U.S. inflation is expected to follow over coming years generally softened in June, amid retreating projections of price increases for a wide array of consumer goods and services, a New York Fed survey showed on Monday. Inflation a year from now was seen at 3% as of June - down from the expected rise of 3.2% in May - and five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%. Crude oil prices are better behaved this week, too, falling more than 3% from the 10-week highs hit late last week and halving the annual oil price gain to 10%. The losses on Tuesday came after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than many in markets had expected - easing concerns over supply disruption. Before Powell starts speaking later, there will also be an update on U.S. small business confidence for last month.