link1s.site

Beyond the aurorae: How solar flares spill out across the Solar System

The Sun is extremely active right now, blasting the Earth with the biggest solar storms in 20 years. This is what it is doing to the rest of the Solar System.

If you happened to look skywards on a few nights in May 2024, there was a good chance of seeing something spectacular. For those at relatively low latitudes, there was a rare chance to see the flickering red, pink, green glow of our planet's aurorae.

A powerful solar storm had sent bursts of charged particles barrelling towards Earth and, as they bounced around in our planet's atmosphere, they unleashed spectacular displays of the Northern and Southern Lights. The dazzling displays of aurora borealis were visible far further south than they might normally be – and far further north in the case of aurora australis thanks to the power of the geomagnetic storm, the strongest in two decades.

Although some people experienced only a faint, eerie glow, others were treated to a myriad of colour as far south as London in the UK and Ohio in the US. Reports even came in from just to the north of San Francisco, California.

But while this spike in activity from the Sun left many on Earth transfixed by the light display it produced, it has also had a profound effect elsewhere in the Solar System. As most of us wondered at the colours dancing across the night's sky, astronomers have been peering far beyond to see the strange ways such intense bursts of particles affect other planets and the space between them.

"The Sun can fire material outwards in any direction like a garden sprinkler," says Jim Wild, a professor of space physics at Lancaster University in the UK. "The effects are felt throughout the Solar System."

Our Sun is currently heading towards, or has already reached, its solar maximum – the point in an 11-year cycle where it is most active. This means the Sun produces more bursts of radiation and particles from solar flares and events known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). If these are sprayed in our direction, they can supercharge the Earth's magnetic field, causing magnificent aurorae but also posing problems for satellites and power grids.

"Things really seem to be picking up right now," says Mathew Owens, a space physicist at the University of Reading in the UK. "I think we're about at solar maximum now, so we may see more of these kinds of storms in the next couple of years."

Around the Sun, multiple spacecraft are observing this increase in activity up close. One of those, the European Space Agency's (Esa) Solar Orbiter, has been studying the Sun since 2020 on an orbit that takes it within the path of Mercury. Currently the spacecraft is "on the far side of the Sun as seen from Earth", says Daniel Müller, project scientist for the Solar Orbiter mission at Esa in the Netherlands. "So we see everything that Earth doesn't see."

The storm that hit Earth in May originated from an active region of solar flares and sunspots, bursts of plasma and twisting magnetic fields on the Sun's surface, known as its photosphere. Solar Orbiter was able to see "several of the flares from this monster active region that rotated out of Earth's view", says Müller, bright flashes of light and darkened regions called sunspots on the Sun's surface.

One of the goals of Solar Orbiter is "to connect what's happening on the Sun to what's happening in the heliosphere," says Müller. The heliosphere is a vast bubble of plasma that envelops the Sun and the planets of the Solar System as it travels through interstellar space. What Müller and his colleagues hope to learn more about is where the solar wind – the constant stream of particles spilling out from the Sun across the Solar System – "blows into the interstellar medium", he says. "So we are particularly interested in anything energetic on the Sun that we can find back in the turbulence of the solar wind."

This particular cycle, cycle 25, appears to be "significantly more active than what people predicted", says Müller, with the relative sunspot number – an index used to measure the activity across the visible surface of the Sun – eclipsing what was seen as the peak of the previous solar cycle. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) in the US had predicted a maximum monthly average of 124 sunspots a day in May, but the actual number was 170 on average, with one day exceeding 240, according to Müller.

But the exact cause of the Sun's 11-year-long cycle and its variabilities remains a bit of a mystery.

• Alien aurora: The strange displays that light up other worlds

• Why Einstein was wrong about black holes

• The Moon is slipping away from the Earth – and our days are getting longer

The effects of these changes in solar activity, however, extend far across the Solar System. Earth is not the only planet to be hit by solar storms as they billow across interplanetary space. Mercury, the closest planet to the Sun, has a much weaker magnetic field than Earth – about 100 times less – and lacks a substantial atmosphere. But solar activity can cause the surface of the planet to glow with X-rays as solar wind rains down. Venus also lacks a substantial magnetic field, but the planet does still create auroras as the solar wind interacts with the planet's ionosphere.

At Mars, the effect of solar activity is more obvious. Here, a Nasa spacecraft called Maven (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution) has been studying the planet's atmosphere from orbit since 2014. "We were on the declining side of solar cycle 24 [then]," says Shannon Curry, a planetary scientist at the University of Colorado, Boulder in the US and the lead on the mission. "We are now coming up on the peak of cycle 25, and this latest series of active regions has produced the strongest activity Maven has ever seen."

Between 14 and 20 May the spacecraft detected exceptionally powerful solar activity reaching Mars, including an X8.7 – solar flares are ranked B, C, M, and X in order from weakest to strongest. Results from the event have yet to be studied, but Curry noted that a previous X8.2 flare had resulted in "a dozen papers" published in scientific journals. Another flare on 20 May, later estimated to be an even bigger X12, hurled X-rays and gamma rays towards Mars before a subsequent coronal mass ejection launched a barrage of charged particles in the same direction.

Images beamed back from Nasa's Curiosity Rover on Mars revealed just now much energy struck the Martian surface. Streaks and dots caused by charged particles hitting the camera's sensors caused the images to "dance with snow", according to a press release from Nasa. Maven, meanwhile, captured glowing aurora as the particles hit the Mars' atmosphere, engulfing the entire planet in an ultraviolet glow.

The flares can cause the temperature of the Martian atmosphere to "dramatically increase," says Curry. "It can even double in the upper atmosphere. The atmosphere itself inflates. The entire atmosphere expands dozens of kilometres – exciting for scientists but detrimental for spacecraft, because when the atmosphere expands there's more drag on the spacecraft."

The expanding atmosphere can also cause degradation of the solar panels on spacecraft orbiting Mars from the increase in radiation. "The last two flares caused more degradation than what a third of a year would typically do," says Curry.

Mars, while it has lost most of its magnetic field, still has "crustal remnant magnetic fields, little bubbles all over the southern hemisphere", says Curry. During a solar event, charged particles can light those up and excite particles. "The entire day side lights up in what we call a diffuse aurora," says Curry. "The entire sky glows. This would most likely be visible to astronauts on the surface."

By the time solar storms reach further out into the solar system, they tend to have dissipated but can still have an impact on the planets they encounter. Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune all have aurorae that are in part driven by charged particles from the Sun interacting with their magnetic fields.

But one of the key effects of solar activity on interplanetary space that astronomers are eager to study is something called "slow solar wind", a more sluggish, but denser stream of charged particles and plasma from the Sun. Steph Yardley, a solar astronomer at Northumbria University in the UK, says solar wind is "generally classed about 500km/s (310 miles/s)", but slow wind falls below this. It also has a lower temperature and tends to be more volatile.

Recent work by Yardley and her colleagues, using data from Solar Orbiter, suggests that the Sun's atmosphere, its corona, plays a role in the speed of the solar wind. Regions where the magnetic field lines, the direction of the field and charged particles are "open" – stretching out into space without looping back – provide a highway for solar wind to reach high speeds. Closed loops over some active regions – where the magnetic field lines have no beginning and end – can occasionally snap, producing slow solar wind. The variability in the slow solar wind seems to be driven by the unpredictable flow of plasma inside the Sun, which makes the magnetic field particularly chaotic.

The X-class flares and coronal mass ejections seen in May transformed the interplanetary medium as they flung out material across the solar system. Solar Orbiter detected a huge spike in ions moving at thousands of kilometres per second immediately after the 20 May flare. Computers on board other spacecraft – the BepiColombo probe, which is currently on a seven-year journey to Mercury, and Mars Express, in orbit around the Red Planet – both saw a dramatic increase in the number of memory errors caused by the high energy solar particles hitting the memory cells.

The day after the coronal mass ejection, magnetometers on board the Solar Orbiter also saw large swings in the magnetic field around the spacecraft as a huge bubble of plasma made up of charged particles thrown out from by the event washed past it at 1,400km/s (870 miles/s).

Increased solar activity is a boon for scientists. "If you track the number of papers produced by solar physicists, you can almost see an 11-year cycle in there," says Owens. "We are all more scientifically productive when there's a lot of activity to study."

As the Sun continues into solar maximum, the Solar System will see more and more activity streaming from its surface. Yet while all the planets witness at least some of the activity, our planet bears the brunt more than most. "Earth is slightly unique in that space weather can have interesting effects on human technologies," says Wild. "There's an extra dimension here on Earth."

Perhaps one day those anthropogenic effects might be felt elsewhere, too. "If you're going to fly to Mars and you have a six-month flight through the interplanetary environment, you're going to potentially suck up a lot of space weather events," says Wild. "How you protect your astronauts is an interplanetary issue that we need to get our heads around."

Wto: Members have more trade promotion measures than restrictions
The latest trade monitor released recently by the World Trade Organization shows that between mid-October 2023 and mid-May 2024, WTO members continued to introduce more trade promotion measures than trade restrictive measures. The WTO said it was an important signal of members' commitment to keep trade flowing amid the current geopolitical uncertainty. According to WTO statistics, during the monitoring period, WTO members adopted 169 trade promotion measures on commodities, more than the 99 trade restrictive measures introduced. Most of the measures are aimed at imports. Commenting on the findings, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that despite the challenging geopolitical environment, this latest trade monitoring report highlights the resilience of world trade. Even against the backdrop of rising protectionist pressures and signs of economic fragmentation, governments around the world are taking meaningful steps to liberalize and boost trade. This demonstrates the benefits of trade on people's purchasing power, business competitiveness and price stability. The WTO monitoring also identified significant new developments in economic support measures. Subsidies as part of industrial policy are increasing rapidly, especially in areas related to climate change and national security.
Russian military launches massive missile attack, Kiev children's hospital hit; President Biden issues statement condemning Russia's "brutalism"
A children's hospital in the Ukrainian capital was hit by a Russian missile on Monday as part of a wave of airstrikes across Ukraine that has killed at least 31 people and injured 154 others. "Russian terrorists have once again launched a massive missile attack on Ukrainian cities - Kiev, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelensky said Russia fired more than 40 missiles of different types at the five cities in daytime attacks, hitting residential buildings and public infrastructure. The Ukrainian air force said it intercepted 30 missiles. Authorities said the attack on Kiev killed seven people, while the attack on Kryvyi Rih, Zelensky's birthplace in central Ukraine, killed 10 and injured 47. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attacks, calling the assault on the Kiev hospital and another medical facility in the capital's Dniprovsky district "particularly egregious," said his spokesman, Stephane Dujarric. "Direct attacks on civilians and civilian objects are prohibited under international humanitarian law. Any such attacks are unacceptable and must cease immediately," Dujarric said. The U.N. Security Council will meet Tuesday to discuss the Russian strikes, diplomats said. The Russian Defense Ministry said the strikes targeted Ukrainian defense factories and a military aviation base and were successful. It denied striking any civilian facilities and claimed, without evidence, that photos from Kiev showed the damage was caused by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile. Ukrainian Air Force Colonel Yurii Ignat said Russia has been improving the effectiveness of its air strikes by equipping its missiles with enhanced features, including so-called heat decoys that can throw air defense systems off target. In comments sent to The Associated Press, he said the cruise missiles flew low in Monday's attack -- just 50 meters off the ground -- making them harder to hit. Western countries, led by the United States, have provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in arms support. They will hold a three-day NATO summit in Washington starting Tuesday to work out how to reassure Kiev of NATO's strong support and give Ukrainians hope that their country can survive the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. "Today's Russian missile strike that killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians and caused damage and loss of life to Kyiv's largest children's hospital is a horrifying reminder of Russia's brutality," U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement Monday. "It is critical that the world continues to stand with Ukraine at this important moment and that we do not ignore Russian aggression." Biden said in the statement that he will meet with President Zelensky during the NATO summit in Washington this week "to make clear our unwavering support for Ukraine." Biden continued: "We will join our allies in announcing new measures to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses and help protect their cities and civilians from Russian attacks. The United States stands with the Ukrainian people." Czech President Petr Pavel said the hospital attack was "inexcusable" and he hoped the NATO summit would reach a consensus that Russia is "the greatest threat and we must be fully prepared to deal with it." Zelensky said during a visit to Poland that he hoped the NATO summit would provide Ukraine with more air defense systems. The Ukrainian leader said rescuers were digging through the rubble of the Ohmatdit Children's Hospital in Kyiv and that the number of casualties was not yet known. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said at least 16 people were injured, including seven children, and the attack caused a two-story wing of the hospital to partially collapse. Doors and windows were blown off the hospital's 10-story main building, and the walls were charred. The floor of one room was splattered with blood. Hospital officials said the intensive care unit, operating room and oncology department were damaged.
Gold, silver caught in downdraft of broad commodity market sell off
(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are sharply lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, on heavy profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders after recent good price advances. The selling pressure today across most of the raw commodity spectrum is also keeping the precious metals bulls on the sidelines to start the trading week. August gold was last down $37.50 at $2,360.10. September silver was down $0.849 at $30.85. U.S. stock indexes mixed but near their record highs scored last week. The rallying stock market is a bearish element for the gold and silver markets, from a competing asset class perspective. The key U.S. data points of the week include Fed Chairman Powell’s speeches to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the consumer and producer price indexes on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $82.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently 4.288%. Technically, August gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $2,406.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at $2,382.60 and then at $2,400070. First support is seen at $2,350.00 and then at last week’s low of $2,327.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $28.90. First resistance is seen at $31.00 and then at $31.50. Next support is seen at Friday’s low of $30.45 and then at $30.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5. (Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll add your email address to my Front Burner list.)
MOFCOM refutes EU comments on anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on Monday rejected remarks from the EU Ambassador to China on the anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). MOFCOM said China had expressed strong opposition through various channels since October 2023 and has always advocated for handling economic and trade frictions through dialogue and consultation in order to maintain the overall strategic partnership between China and Europe. EU Ambassador to China Jorge Toledo claimed on Sunday that the EU has been trying to engage with China for months regarding the imposition of tariffs on Chinese EVs but that China had only recently sought to initiate discussions. This is false, the spokesperson said. MOFCOM said that after the European Commission (EC) officially filed a case, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao sent a letter to European Commission Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis on October 24, 2023, expressing hope to resolve the case through dialogue and negotiation. On November 13, 2023, Wang sent another letter to the European side proposing negotiation suggestions. In February 2024, Wang met with Dombrovskis during the WTO's 13th Ministerial Conference face to face and proposed dialogue and negotiation with the European side. On May 19, 2024, Wang reiterated the hope for dialogue and negotiation to resolve the case in a letter to the European side. Additionally, Chinese technical experts have been sending signals to the European side regarding on-site inspections, hearings, and other channels since the case was filed, expressing willingness to resolve trade frictions through dialogue and negotiation. On the day the preliminary ruling was announced on June 12, Dombrovskis replied to Wang in a letter, expressing the desire for both sides to strengthen dialogue to resolve the case. On June 22, Wang held a video conference with Dombrovskis, and they agreed to start negotiations on the EU's anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs. Subsequently, China sent a working group to Europe for negotiations on June 23, and multiple rounds of technical consultations were held simultaneously via video. MOFCOM said that China has shown the utmost sincerity and hopes that the European side will meet China halfway, show sincerity, and push forward the negotiation process to reach a mutually acceptable solution as soon as possible. China has always believed that trade protectionist measures are not conducive to the development of global green industries and automotive industry cooperation. Efforts should be made to adhere to dialogue and cooperation to promote economic green transformation, rather than creating divisions and disrupting global industrial and supply chains, MOFCOM said. China firmly opposes any unilateralism and protectionism that politicizes and weaponizes economic and trade issues, and will take all necessary measures to defend its own interests against any abuse of rules and suppression of China, MOFCOM added.
Avi Bruce appointed as head of IDF Central Command
On the evening of July 8, local time, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying that Major General Avi Bluth replaced Yehuda Fox as the commander of the Israeli Central Command. Earlier that day, the Israeli army held a handover ceremony, which was presided over by the Israeli Chief of Staff Halevy. Avi Bluth joined the Israel Defense Forces in 1993 and commanded the Israeli military operations in the West Bank. In May this year, Bruce was promoted to major general and served as a military commander in the Israeli Central Command. CCTV reporters learned that in late April this year, Yehuda Fox, then commander of the Israeli Central Command, requested to resign and retire from the army in August this year. Fox had previously stated that he should bear part of the responsibility for the military intelligence failure on October 7 last year, and "must end his term like everyone else." According to the official website of the Israeli Defense Forces, the Central Command is one of the four major commands of the Israeli army, headquartered in Jerusalem, and its responsibility covers nearly one-third of Israel's territory.