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Gold reaction to employment data and geopolitical events

The June US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data showed an increase of 206,000 jobs, exceeding expectations.

Political uncertainty and the People's Bank of China's pause in gold purchases influence gold market dynamics.

Recent technical developments in the gold market, including breaking the triangle formation and subsequent rally, indicate the potential for higher prices.

Despite a bullish outlook, further consolidation is possible before a significant surge.

The recent US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data revealed a rise of 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing the market expectation of 190,000, despite a downward revision from 272,000 to 218,000 for May. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% and the wage inflation declined to 3.9% year-over-year. These mixed employment signals have increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Additionally, political developments in France, where the left-wing New Popular Front led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is poised to win a significant number of seats, add to the global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has paused its gold purchasing program, potentially waiting for a further price pullback. These factors collectively influence gold prices, providing a complex backdrop where the prospect of lower interest rates, political uncertainty, and central bank purchasing strategies are likely to drive market dynamics and investor behaviour in the coming months.

Bullish Trends in Gold Prices

The announcement of the NFP data has dropped the US Dollar Index and boosted gold prices. Since the gold market broke the triangle formation on Wednesday and formed an inside candle on Thursday, the break above Thursday's high on Friday initiated a strong rally, closing the price at higher levels. The red line was the first resistance of this breakout where the gold closed the last week. A clear break above this level may initiate another surge higher. The breakout of the triangle suggests higher prices, but the risk environment remains, as June was a correction month. It looks like the price is preparing for higher levels, but the possibility of consolidation before the surge cannot be ignored.

Bottom line

In conclusion, the increase in US employment, despite mixed signals in wage inflation and unemployment, has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, boosting gold prices while weakening the US Dollar Index. Political uncertainties in France and the pause in gold purchases by the People's Bank of China further contribute to the complex economic landscape, indicating potential volatility ahead. The gold market's recent technical developments, including breaking the triangle formation and the subsequent rally, suggest readiness for higher prices. However, the possibility of consolidation before another significant surge remains, necessitating careful observation by investors as the market navigates these multifaceted influences.

The Apple Watch is reportedly getting a birthday makeover

Apple is planning to revamp its smartwatch as its 10th birthday nears. The improvements include larger displays and thinner builds, Bloomberg reported. The revamped watches may also get a new chip, which could enable some AI enhancements. The Apple Watch is about to turn 10, so Apple is planning a birthday revamp, including larger displays and thinner builds, Bloomberg reported. Both versions of the new Series 10 watches will have screens similar to the large displays found on the Apple Watch Ultra, the report said. The revamped watches are also expected to contain a new chip that may permit some AI enhancements later on. Last month, Apple pulled back the curtain on its generative-AI plans with Apple Intelligence. Advertisement It hopes the artificial-intelligence features will prove alluring enough to persuade consumers to buy new Apple products. The announcement has been generally well received by Wall Street. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities wrote in a Monday note that the "iPhone 16 AI-driven upgrade could represent a golden upgrade cycle for Cupertino." "We believe AI technology being introduced into the Apple ecosystem will bring monetization opportunities on both the services as well as iPhone/hardware front and adds $30 to $40 per share," he added. Apple's stock closed on Friday at just over $226 a share, up 22% this year and valuing the company at $3.47 trillion. That puts it just behind Microsoft, which was worth $3.48 trillion at Friday's close. The tech giants have been vying for the title of the world's most valuable company in recent months — with the chipmaker Nvidia briefing claiming the crown last month. Apple also announced some software updates for the watch at its Worldwide Developers Conference last month. The latest version of the device's software, watchOS 11, emphasizes fitness and health, introducing tools that allow users to rate workouts and adjust effort ratings. WatchOS 11 will also use machine learning to curate the best photos for users' displays. Apple has previously used product birthdays to release new versions of devices. The iPhone X's release marked the 10th anniversary of the smartphone. However, it's not clear exactly when Apple plans to release the revamped watches, Bloomberg said. The company announced the Apple Watch in September 2014, with CEO Tim Cook calling it "the most personal product we've ever made." Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment made outside normal working hours.

Xinjiang scientists discover plant with potential to survive on Mars

In a groundbreaking discovery, researchers from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have found a desert moss species, known as Syntrichia caninervis, that has the potential to survive in the extreme conditions on Mars. The Global Times learned from the institute that during the third Xinjiang scientific expedition, the research team focused on studying the desert moss and found that it not only challenges people's understanding of the tolerance of organisms in extreme environments, but also demonstrates the ability to survive and regenerate under simulated Martian conditions. Supported by the Xinjiang scientific expedition project, researchers Li Xiaoshuang, Zhang Daoyuan and Zhang Yuanming from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography and Kuang Tingyun, an academician from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, concentrated on studying the "pioneer species" Syntrichia caninervis in an extreme desert environment, according to the institute in an article it sent to the Global Times on Sunday. Through scientific experiments, the researchers systematically proved that the moss can tolerate over 98 percent cell dehydration, survive at temperatures as low as -196 C without dying, withstand over 5000Gy of gamma radiation without perishing, and quickly recover, turn green, and resume growth, showcasing extraordinary resilience. These findings push the boundaries of human knowledge on the tolerance of organisms in extreme environments. Furthermore, the research revealed that under simulated Martian conditions with multiple adversities, Syntrichia caninervis can still survive and regenerate when returned to suitable conditions. This marks the first report of higher plants surviving under simulated Martian conditions. The research team also identified unique characteristics of Syntrichia caninervis. Its overlapping leaves reduce water evaporation, while the white tips of the leaves reflect intense sunlight. Additionally, the innovative "top-down" water absorption mode of the white tips efficiently collects and transports water from the atmosphere. Moreover, the moss can enter a selective metabolic dormancy state in adverse environments and rapidly provide the energy needed for recovery when its surrounding environment improves. Based on the extreme environmental tolerance of Syntrichia caninervis, the research team plans to conduct experiments on spacecraft to monitor the survival response and adaptation capabilities of the species under microgravity and various ionizing radiation adversities. They aim to unravel the physiological and molecular basis of the moss and explore the key life tolerance regulatory mechanisms, laying the foundation for future applications of Syntrichia caninervis in outer space colonization.

Iran's president-elect reaffirms policy toward Israel

Iran's President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's anti-Israel stance on Monday, saying resistance movements across the region will not allow Israel's "criminal policies" against Palestinians to continue. Pezeshkian told Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah, that "the Islamic Republic will always support the people of the region in their resistance against the illegal Zionist regime." This suggests that the incoming government will not change its regional policy under the relatively moderate Pezeshkian, who defeated his hard-line opponent in a runoff election last week. Pezeshkian was quoted as saying by Iranian media, "I am sure that the regional resistance movement will not allow this regime to continue its militant and criminal policies against the oppressed people of Palestine and other countries in the region." The Shiite Muslim Hezbollah and the Palestinian Sunni Muslim Hamas are both part of the local "resistance axis" faction organization supported by Iran. Israel did not immediately comment on Pezeshkian's speech. Hamas led an attack on southern Israel on October 7. According to Israeli statistics, Hamas killed 1,200 people and kidnapped about 250 hostages, triggering the Israeli-Palestinian war. The Gaza Health Ministry said that the Israeli military attack killed more than 38,000 Palestinians and injured nearly 88,000 people.

Samsung expects profits to jump by more than 1,400%

Samsung Electronics expects its profits for the three months to June 2024 to jump 15-fold compared to the same period last year. An artificial intelligence (AI) boom has lifted the prices of advanced chips, driving up the firm's forecast for the second quarter. The South Korean tech giant is the world's largest maker of memory chips, smartphones and televisions. The announcement pushed Samsung shares up more than 2% during early trading hours in Seoul. The firm also reported a more than 10-fold jump in its profits for the first three months of this year. In this quarter, it said it is expecting its profit to rise to 10.4tn won ($7.54bn; £5.9bn), from 670bn won last year. That surpasses analysts' forecasts of 8.8tn won, according to LSEG SmartEstimate. "Right now we are seeing skyrocketing demand for AI chips in data centers and smartphones," said Marc Einstein, chief analyst at Tokyo-based research and advisory firm ITR Corporation. Optimism about AI is one reason for the broader market rally over the last year, which pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in the United States to new records on Wednesday. The market value of chip-making giant Nvidia surged past $3tn last month, briefly holding the top spot as the world's most valuable company. "The AI boom which massively boosted Nvidia is also boosting Samsung's earnings and indeed those of the entire sector," Mr Einstein added. Samsung Electronics is the flagship unit of South Korean conglomerate Samsung Group. Next week, the tech company faces a possible three-day strike, which is expected to start on Monday. A union of workers is demanding a more transparent system for bonuses and time off.

South African rand stable as markets await US interest rate hints

JOHANNESBURG, July 9 (Reuters) - The South African rand was little changed in early trade on Tuesday, as markets awaited the Federal Reserve chair's testimony in Washington and U.S. June inflation data for clues on the country's future interest rate path. At 0644 GMT, the rand traded at 18.1300 against the dollar , near its previous close of 18.1175. "The rand has opened marginally softer at 18.13 this morning, and we expect trading to remain range-bound in the short term," said Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE. Markets will listen to the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony in Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday and look to June inflation data out of the U.S. later this week for hints on the future interest rate path in the world's biggest economy. "Analysts will be gauging the Fed's response to the recent softer U.S. economic and labour data, with markets already starting to price in two rate cuts this year," Cilliers added. The risk-sensitive rand often takes cues from global drivers like U.S. economic policy in the absence of major local factors. South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was slightly stronger in early deals, with the yield down 1 basis point at 9.74%.