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Gold reaction to employment data and geopolitical events

The June US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data showed an increase of 206,000 jobs, exceeding expectations.

Political uncertainty and the People's Bank of China's pause in gold purchases influence gold market dynamics.

Recent technical developments in the gold market, including breaking the triangle formation and subsequent rally, indicate the potential for higher prices.

Despite a bullish outlook, further consolidation is possible before a significant surge.

The recent US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data revealed a rise of 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing the market expectation of 190,000, despite a downward revision from 272,000 to 218,000 for May. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% and the wage inflation declined to 3.9% year-over-year. These mixed employment signals have increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Additionally, political developments in France, where the left-wing New Popular Front led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is poised to win a significant number of seats, add to the global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has paused its gold purchasing program, potentially waiting for a further price pullback. These factors collectively influence gold prices, providing a complex backdrop where the prospect of lower interest rates, political uncertainty, and central bank purchasing strategies are likely to drive market dynamics and investor behaviour in the coming months.

Bullish Trends in Gold Prices

The announcement of the NFP data has dropped the US Dollar Index and boosted gold prices. Since the gold market broke the triangle formation on Wednesday and formed an inside candle on Thursday, the break above Thursday's high on Friday initiated a strong rally, closing the price at higher levels. The red line was the first resistance of this breakout where the gold closed the last week. A clear break above this level may initiate another surge higher. The breakout of the triangle suggests higher prices, but the risk environment remains, as June was a correction month. It looks like the price is preparing for higher levels, but the possibility of consolidation before the surge cannot be ignored.

Bottom line

In conclusion, the increase in US employment, despite mixed signals in wage inflation and unemployment, has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, boosting gold prices while weakening the US Dollar Index. Political uncertainties in France and the pause in gold purchases by the People's Bank of China further contribute to the complex economic landscape, indicating potential volatility ahead. The gold market's recent technical developments, including breaking the triangle formation and the subsequent rally, suggest readiness for higher prices. However, the possibility of consolidation before another significant surge remains, necessitating careful observation by investors as the market navigates these multifaceted influences.

Record numbers of people are flying. So why are airlines’ profits plunging?
New York CNN — A record number of passengers are expected to pass through US airports this holiday travel week. You’d think this would be a great time to run an airline. You’d be wrong. Airlines face numerous problems, including higher costs, such as fuel, wages and interest rates. And problems at Boeing mean airlines have too few planes to expand routes to support a record numbers of flyers. Strong bookings can’t entirely offset that financial squeeze. The good news for passengers is they will be spared most of the problems hurting airlines’ bottom lines — at least in the near term. Airfares are driven far more by supply and demand, not their costs. But in the long run, the airlines’ difficulties could mean fewer airline routes, less passenger choice and ultimately a less pleasant flying experience. Profit squeeze Industry analysts expect airlines to report a drop of about $2 billion in profit, or 33%, when they report financial results for the April to June period this year. That would follow losses of nearly $800 million across the industry in the first quarter. Labor costs and jet fuel prices, the airlines’ two largest costs, are both sharply higher this year. Airline pilot unions just landed double-digit pay hikes to make up for years of stagnant wages; flight attendant unions now want comparable raises. Jet fuel prices are climbing because of higher demand in the summer. According to the International Air Transport Association’s jet fuel monitor, prices are up 1.4% in just the last week, and about 4% in the last month. Adding to the airlines’ problems is the crisis at Boeing, as well as the less-well-publicized problems with some of the jet engines on planes from rival Airbus. Since an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max jet lost a door plug on a January 5 flight, leaving a gaping hole in the side of the plane 10 minutes after takeoff, the Federal Aviation Administration has limited how many jets Boeing can make over concerns about quality and safety. As a result, airlines have dramatically reduced plans to expand their fleets and replace older planes with more fuel efficient models. In some cases, airlines have asked pilots to take time off without pay, and carriers such as Southwest and United have announced pilot hiring freezes. In addition to the problems at Boeing, hundreds of the Airbus A220 and A320 family of jets globally have also been grounded for at least a month or more to deal with engine problems. Just about all the planes with those engines have been out of sevice for at least a few days to undergo examinations. And Airbus has also cut back the number of planes it expects to deliver to airlines this year because of supply chain problems. Problems for flyers For now, competition in the industry remains fierce: There are 6% more seats available this month compared to July of 2023, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. And that’s helped to drive fares down — good news for passengers, but more bad news for airlines’ profits. Southwest announced in April that it would stop serving four airports to trim costs — Bellingham International Airport in Washington state, Cozumel International Airport in Mexico, Syracuse Hancock International Airport in New York and Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport. Many more cities lost air service during the financial hard times of the pandemic. While upstart airlines are driving prices lower for travelers, those discount carriers might not survive long term. As the major carriers are making less money, many of the upstarts are flat-out losing money.
United Airlines Boeing 757 loses tire during takeoff
United Airlines confirmed that a tire fell off a Boeing 757 passenger plane when it took off from Los Angeles International Airport in the early morning of July 8, local time. It is reported that there has been no report of any material damage or casualties in this accident. United Airlines said in a statement that the aircraft tire has been found and the investigation is ongoing. There were 174 passengers and 7 crew members on the flight involved. The flight left Los Angeles International Airport at around 7:15 on July 8 and flew to Denver. Unlike the aircraft tire falling incident on a United Airlines flight in March, the pilot of this flight continued the journey to Denver and landed smoothly there.
Gold reaction to employment data and geopolitical events
The June US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data showed an increase of 206,000 jobs, exceeding expectations. Political uncertainty and the People's Bank of China's pause in gold purchases influence gold market dynamics. Recent technical developments in the gold market, including breaking the triangle formation and subsequent rally, indicate the potential for higher prices. Despite a bullish outlook, further consolidation is possible before a significant surge. The recent US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data revealed a rise of 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing the market expectation of 190,000, despite a downward revision from 272,000 to 218,000 for May. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% and the wage inflation declined to 3.9% year-over-year. These mixed employment signals have increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Additionally, political developments in France, where the left-wing New Popular Front led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is poised to win a significant number of seats, add to the global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has paused its gold purchasing program, potentially waiting for a further price pullback. These factors collectively influence gold prices, providing a complex backdrop where the prospect of lower interest rates, political uncertainty, and central bank purchasing strategies are likely to drive market dynamics and investor behaviour in the coming months. Bullish Trends in Gold Prices The announcement of the NFP data has dropped the US Dollar Index and boosted gold prices. Since the gold market broke the triangle formation on Wednesday and formed an inside candle on Thursday, the break above Thursday's high on Friday initiated a strong rally, closing the price at higher levels. The red line was the first resistance of this breakout where the gold closed the last week. A clear break above this level may initiate another surge higher. The breakout of the triangle suggests higher prices, but the risk environment remains, as June was a correction month. It looks like the price is preparing for higher levels, but the possibility of consolidation before the surge cannot be ignored. Bottom line In conclusion, the increase in US employment, despite mixed signals in wage inflation and unemployment, has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, boosting gold prices while weakening the US Dollar Index. Political uncertainties in France and the pause in gold purchases by the People's Bank of China further contribute to the complex economic landscape, indicating potential volatility ahead. The gold market's recent technical developments, including breaking the triangle formation and the subsequent rally, suggest readiness for higher prices. However, the possibility of consolidation before another significant surge remains, necessitating careful observation by investors as the market navigates these multifaceted influences.
Exclusive: Japan must strengthen NATO ties to safeguard global peace, PM says
TOKYO, July 9 (Reuters) - Russia's deepening military cooperation with North Korea has underlined the need for Japan to forge closer ties with NATO as regional security threats become increasingly intertwined, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told Reuters. In written remarks ahead of his attendance at a NATO summit in Washington DC this week, Kishida also signalled concern over Beijing's alleged role in aiding Moscow's two-year-old war in Ukraine, although he did not name China. "The securities of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific are inseparable, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its deepened military cooperation with North Korea are strong reminders of that," Kishida said. "Japan is determined to strengthen its cooperation with NATO and its partners," he added. The world, the Japanese leader said, should not tolerate attempts by some countries to disrupt the established international order and reiterated a warning that Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow. He also urged cooperation to confront new security threats that transcend geographical boundaries, such as cyber-attacks and conflicts in space. The U.S. and its allies have accused Pyongyang of providing ballistic missiles and artillery shells that Russia has used in its war in Ukraine and say they fear Moscow in return could provide support for North Korea's nuclear missile development. Washington has also said China is supplying droneWithout naming China, Kishida told Reuters "some countries" have allegedly transferred dual-use civilian-military goods to Russia which has served "as a lifeline" for its Ukraine war. "It is necessary to grapple with such situations in a multi-faceted and strategic manner, taking a panoramic view that considers the full range of international actors fuelling Russia’s attempt to change the status quo by force," he said. "The geographical boundary of 'Euro-Atlantic' or 'Indo-Pacific' is no longer relevant in safeguarding global peace and security. Japan and Indo-Pacific partners can play a great role for NATO allies from this perspective." Constrained by decades of pacifism, Tokyo has been reluctant to supply lethal aid to Ukraine. It has, however, provided financial aid to Kyiv, spearheaded efforts to prepare for its post-war reconstruction, and contributed to NATO’s fund to provide Ukraine with non-lethal equipment such as anti-drone detection systems. Tokyo has also repeatedly warned about the risks of a similar conflict emerging in East Asia, where China has been taking an increasingly muscular stance towards its territorial claims including the democratic island of Taiwan. "This summit is a critical opportunity for Japan, the U.S., and the other NATO allies to confront the ongoing challenges against the international order and to reaffirm values and principles that have shaped global peace and prosperity," he said. There may be limits, however, over how far NATO members are prepared to go in forging closer ties in Asia. A plan that surfaced last year for NATO to open a liaison office in Japan, its first in Asia, was blocked by France and criticised by China. and missile technology, satellite imagery and machine tools to Russia, items which fall short of lethal assistance but are helping Moscow build its military to sustain the Ukraine war. Beijing has said it has not provided any weaponry to any party.
Hollywood's strongest supporting actor has been launched, AI is not far from subverting "Dreamworks"?
As a major city in the United States and even the global film industry, Hollywood has gathered a large number of veteran film and television production companies, including Universal Pictures, Warner Bros., Paramount Pictures, Disney Pictures, MGM Pictures, etc. In addition, new streaming forces such as Netflix have also entered in recent years. When the new generation of technology represented by generative AI sweeps the world, the movie "dream factory" is also experiencing a transformative moment. In early May last year, the US film and television industry launched a series of strikes that lasted for five months. Two labor disputes, led by the Writers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild, have caused the worst industry disruption since the 2020 pandemic, forcing many film projects and TV shows to halt or delay production. The strike has been costly, with Kevin Klowden, chief global strategist at the Milken Institute think tank, estimating it has cost the U.S. economy more than $5 billion, affecting not only film and television production companies, but also surrounding service industries such as catering, trucking and dry cleaning. One of the main conflicts between labor and management is that many actors and screenwriters have expressed concerns about "unemployment" due to the "invasion" of artificial intelligence. Luo Chenya has been working in the film and television industry for more than 10 years, including scriptwriter, documentary photographer and assistant director. She told the first financial reporter that after ChatGPT became popular, she also tried to use chatbots to assist script creation. "I can talk to the AI about my ideas and ideas, and it will help analyze and refine my ideas, and even make some suggestions that I think are quite effective." But on the execution level, the idea of writing it down into a very specific scene, character action, it doesn't really help me." Luo Chenya said that AI still needs more training and evolution in script writing, but the ability to present images is amazing. "AI can directly generate images, which can indeed save labor to a great extent, and may even replace photographers in the future." In post-production, AI can beautify images and modify flaws." A place to be fought over Earlier this year, OpenAI released the Vincennes video model Sora on its website, which can create videos up to a minute long, generating complex scenes with multiple characters, specific types of movement, and precise theme and background details. In addition to being able to generate video from text, the model can also generate video from still images, precisely animating the image content. "Vincennes Video can quickly produce high-quality video content, greatly improving production efficiency, and generative AI helps to improve the analysis of user preferences and personalized recommendations, and enhance the attractiveness of content." These technologies will disrupt traditional video production and content distribution models, and media companies need to adapt and change their operating models." Wang Haoyu, CEO of Mairui Asset Management, said in an interview with the first financial reporter. For this reason, Hollywood giants have long made big bets and stepped up their layout.