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Gold reaction to employment data and geopolitical events

The June US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data showed an increase of 206,000 jobs, exceeding expectations.

Political uncertainty and the People's Bank of China's pause in gold purchases influence gold market dynamics.

Recent technical developments in the gold market, including breaking the triangle formation and subsequent rally, indicate the potential for higher prices.

Despite a bullish outlook, further consolidation is possible before a significant surge.

The recent US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data revealed a rise of 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing the market expectation of 190,000, despite a downward revision from 272,000 to 218,000 for May. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% and the wage inflation declined to 3.9% year-over-year. These mixed employment signals have increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Additionally, political developments in France, where the left-wing New Popular Front led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is poised to win a significant number of seats, add to the global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has paused its gold purchasing program, potentially waiting for a further price pullback. These factors collectively influence gold prices, providing a complex backdrop where the prospect of lower interest rates, political uncertainty, and central bank purchasing strategies are likely to drive market dynamics and investor behaviour in the coming months.

Bullish Trends in Gold Prices

The announcement of the NFP data has dropped the US Dollar Index and boosted gold prices. Since the gold market broke the triangle formation on Wednesday and formed an inside candle on Thursday, the break above Thursday's high on Friday initiated a strong rally, closing the price at higher levels. The red line was the first resistance of this breakout where the gold closed the last week. A clear break above this level may initiate another surge higher. The breakout of the triangle suggests higher prices, but the risk environment remains, as June was a correction month. It looks like the price is preparing for higher levels, but the possibility of consolidation before the surge cannot be ignored.

Bottom line

In conclusion, the increase in US employment, despite mixed signals in wage inflation and unemployment, has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, boosting gold prices while weakening the US Dollar Index. Political uncertainties in France and the pause in gold purchases by the People's Bank of China further contribute to the complex economic landscape, indicating potential volatility ahead. The gold market's recent technical developments, including breaking the triangle formation and the subsequent rally, suggest readiness for higher prices. However, the possibility of consolidation before another significant surge remains, necessitating careful observation by investors as the market navigates these multifaceted influences.

Musk is the billionaire who lost the most money in the first half of 2024: $5 billion a month
At the beginning of this year, Elon Musk had a fortune of $251 billion and could almost single-handedly solve world hunger. However, Tesla's stagnant sales, the endless struggle to buy Twitter, and the volatility of Tesla's stock price meant he lost a lot of money this year. According to Forbes, Musk is the billionaire with the most losses so far this year, with his wealth shrinking at a rate of about $5 billion a month. According to the website, his wealth shrank by more than 10% from the end of 2023 to June 28, 2024. As the website explains: Between December 31, 2023, and June 28, the last day of regular stock market trading for the first half of the year, Musk's net worth fell from $251.3 billion to $221.4 billion, a bigger drop than any other billionaire tracked by Forbes, but Musk remains the richest person on the planet. The main reason for the dip in Musk's pocketbook is that a Delaware judge in January canceled Musk's then-record Tesla compensation package worth $51 billion, which led Forbes to cut the value of the equity award by 50 percent because of uncertainty about whether Musk would receive those stock options. Excluding that bonus, Musk's wealth has remained volatile over the past six months, with the value of his 13 percent stake in Tesla shrinking by about $20 billion as falling profits and car deliveries sent the stock down 20 percent. But that was partly offset by the growth of Musk's stake in his generative artificial intelligence startup xAI to $14.4 billion (Musk also has a roughly $75 billion stake in private aerospace company SpaceX, a $7 billion stake in social media company X, And smaller stakes in other companies, such as brain experimentation startup Neuralink).
Gold reaction to employment data and geopolitical events
The June US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data showed an increase of 206,000 jobs, exceeding expectations. Political uncertainty and the People's Bank of China's pause in gold purchases influence gold market dynamics. Recent technical developments in the gold market, including breaking the triangle formation and subsequent rally, indicate the potential for higher prices. Despite a bullish outlook, further consolidation is possible before a significant surge. The recent US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data revealed a rise of 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing the market expectation of 190,000, despite a downward revision from 272,000 to 218,000 for May. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% and the wage inflation declined to 3.9% year-over-year. These mixed employment signals have increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Additionally, political developments in France, where the left-wing New Popular Front led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is poised to win a significant number of seats, add to the global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has paused its gold purchasing program, potentially waiting for a further price pullback. These factors collectively influence gold prices, providing a complex backdrop where the prospect of lower interest rates, political uncertainty, and central bank purchasing strategies are likely to drive market dynamics and investor behaviour in the coming months. Bullish Trends in Gold Prices The announcement of the NFP data has dropped the US Dollar Index and boosted gold prices. Since the gold market broke the triangle formation on Wednesday and formed an inside candle on Thursday, the break above Thursday's high on Friday initiated a strong rally, closing the price at higher levels. The red line was the first resistance of this breakout where the gold closed the last week. A clear break above this level may initiate another surge higher. The breakout of the triangle suggests higher prices, but the risk environment remains, as June was a correction month. It looks like the price is preparing for higher levels, but the possibility of consolidation before the surge cannot be ignored. Bottom line In conclusion, the increase in US employment, despite mixed signals in wage inflation and unemployment, has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, boosting gold prices while weakening the US Dollar Index. Political uncertainties in France and the pause in gold purchases by the People's Bank of China further contribute to the complex economic landscape, indicating potential volatility ahead. The gold market's recent technical developments, including breaking the triangle formation and the subsequent rally, suggest readiness for higher prices. However, the possibility of consolidation before another significant surge remains, necessitating careful observation by investors as the market navigates these multifaceted influences.
Workers warn of additional walkouts unless demands are met
Members of the National Samsung Electronics Union stage a rally near the company's Hwaseong Campus in Gyeonggi Province, Monday, beginning a three-day strike. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul By Nam Hyun-woo The biggest labor union at Samsung Electronics initiated a three-day strike on Monday, threatening to disrupt the company's chip manufacturing lines unless management agrees to a wage hike and higher incentives. This marks the first strike by unionized workers in the tech giant's 55-year history. The National Samsung Electronics Union (NSEU) claimed that about 4,000 unionized workers from Samsung's plants nationwide participated in a rally at the company's Hwaseong Campus in Gyeonggi Province. Police estimated that approximately 3,000 union members were present at the rally. According to its own survey, the union reported that a total of 6,540 members expressed their intention to participate in the strike. They emphasized that disruptions in manufacturing are anticipated, with over 5,000 members from facility, manufacturing, and development divisions joining the strike. The comments seem to address market expectations that the walkout is unlikely to cause significant disruptions in the chipmaker's operations, largely because most manufacturing lines are automated. The union said that it may launch another strike for an undetermined period, unless management responds to the union’s demand. Since January, the union has been pressing management for a higher wage increase rate for all members, fulfillment of promises regarding paid leave, and improvements to incentive criteria. With negotiations at an impasse, the union announced on May 29 that it would launch a strike. The NSEU has some 30,000 members, accounting for 24 percent of all Samsung employees. Among the union members, about 80 percent work at the device solutions division, which manufactures semiconductors.
BRI: embracing Chinese green practices for a sustainable future
Editor's Note: This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Through the lens of foreign pundits, we take a look at 10 years of the BRI - how it achieves win-win cooperation between China and participating countries of the BRI and how it has given the people of these countries a sense of fulfillment. In an interview with Global Times (GT) reporter Li Aixin, Erik Solheim (Solheim), former under-secretary-general of the United Nations and former executive director of the UN Environment Programme, recalled how the BRI helped shorten a previously long journey in Sri Lanka to a half-hour trip. "We will all be losers in a de-globalized, de-coupled world. The BRI can play a key role in bringing the world together," Solheim said. This is the 18th piece of the series. GT: How do you evaluate the role of the BRI in promoting development in participating countries over the past 10 years? Solheim: The BRI has been a major driver of development since it was announced by President Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan 10 years ago. The China-Laos Railway has connected landlocked Laos to the Chinese and European rail network, making it possible for Laos to sell more goods and welcome more tourists. Rail corridors in Kenya and from Djibouti to Addis Ababa connect the interior of Africa to the coast, bringing opportunities for much faster development in East Africa. The Bandung-Jakarta railway in Indonesia, Hanoi metro, roads and ports in Sri Lanka - there are great examples of good south-south and BRI projects in almost every corner of the world. GT: In your experience of traveling around the world, has any BRI-related story left a deep impression on you? Solheim: Yes, many! I'll just mention two. When I was chief negotiator in the Sri Lanka peace process 15 years ago, it took a long time to travel from the airport to Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka. When I came back last year, it took half an hour on wonderful Chinese-built highways. Traveling through Mombasa, a coastal city in Kenya, you see a lot of poverty and run down houses. Then all of a sudden, a green, clean, well-run oasis opens up. It's the end station of the Nairobi-Mombasa railway which links the capital Nairobi to the coast. The rail station stands out and is showing the future for Kenya. GT: The EU proposed the Global Gateway, and the US proposed the Build Back Better World. What do you think are the similarities and differences between these projects and the BRI? Solheim: I really wish success for the Western initiatives. What developing nations ask for is a choice of good cooperation with both China and the West. Unfortunately, up to now, a number of the Western-led initiatives have been more like media events. They lack structure, secretariat, finances and clear direction. Nearly all nations in the world want to see close people-to-people relations, investment and political cooperation with both China and the West. No one wants to choose. GT: Some people from the West are talking about "de-coupling" and "de-risking." Both seem to be another way of saying "de-globalization." Do you think "de-coupling" and "de-risking" will affect the BRI? And what role will the BRI play in maintaining globalization? Solheim: Decoupling is probably the most unwise idea in the world today. It's outright dangerous. Facing climate change, environmental degradation, economic troubles, war in Ukraine and other places, and the threat of pandemics, we need more, not less, cooperation. We will all be losers in a de-globalized, de-coupled world. The BRI can play a key role in bringing the world together. Almost all developing countries have made BRI agreements with China. As an example, when President Xi met all the leaders of Central Asia recently in Xi'an, Northwest China's Shaanxi Province, they made a very ambitious declaration on future green cooperation between China and Central Asia. GT: You have previously said that the BRI is a fantastic vehicle to promote green global development, which can boost the economy and ecology at the same time. Could you elaborate on how you think the BRI has achieved development of the economy and ecology? Solheim: In the beginning there were too many fossil fuel projects among BRI programs. In the BRI International Green Development Coalition, we argued this should stop. When President Xi pledged to stop building new coal-fired power projects overseas, it was one of the most important environmental decisions ever. Also, it happened at a time when important BRI nations like Bangladesh, Kenya and Pakistan decided they could grow their economies and go green without coal. The BRI will in the next decade become the world's most important vehicle for green energy and green transport. We will see massive investments in solar and wind power, hydrogen, electric batteries and more. GT: How do you view China's goal of achieving harmony between humanity and nature in modernization? In what way is China's story in pursuing harmony between humanity and nature relevant to other countries? Solheim: China now covers between 60 percent and 80 percent of all major green technologies in the world - solar, wind, hydro, batteries, electric cars and high-speed rail. Companies like Longi, BYD and CATL are the world leaders in their sectors. More remarkably and maybe less noticed abroad, China is also a global leader in protecting nature. It's embarking upon one of the most massive national park programs, with a focus on Qinghai Province and Xizang Autonomous Region. China is by far the biggest tree planter in the world and the global leader in desert control in Kubuqi, Inner Mongolia and other places. China has been hugely successful in the recovery of endangered species like the Giant Panda, Tibetan Antelope and Snow Leopard. A new center for mangrove restoration is being set up in Shenzhen and the fishing ban in the Yangtze will restore that magnificent ecosystem. The Belt and Road is a great opportunity for the world to learn from good Chinese green practices.
Carlsberg to buy Britvic for $4.2 billion
Carlsberg to buy Britvic for 1,315p per share Carlsberg will also buy out Marston's from brewing joint venture Danish brewer plans to create integrated beverage business in UK Shares in Carlsberg, Britvic, Marston's all rise July 8 (Reuters) - Carlsberg (CARLb.CO), opens new tab has agreed to buy British soft drinks maker Britvic (BVIC.L), opens new tab for 3.3 billion pounds ($4.23 billion), a move the Danish brewer said would forge a UK beverage "powerhouse" and that sent both companies' shares higher. Carlsberg clinched the takeover with a sweetened bid of 1,315 pence per share - comprising cash and a special dividend of 25 pence a share - after the British company rejected 1,250 pence per share last month. The acquisition will create value for shareholders, contribute to growth and forge a combined beer and soft drink company that is unique in the UK, CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen told investors on a conference call. "With this transaction we are creating a UK powerhouse," he said. He brushed off concerns from some analysts about integration risks, saying Carlsberg has a strong track record of running beer and soft drink businesses in several markets. Soft drinks already make up 16% of Carlsberg's volumes. COST SAVINGS As drinkers in some markets ditch beer for spirits or cut back on drinking altogether, brewers have looked to broaden their portfolio into new categories like hard seltzer, canned cocktails and cider, as well as zero-alcohol brews. Britvic sells non-alcoholic drinks in Britain, Ireland, Brazil and other international markets such as France, the Middle East and Asia. Carlsberg said the deal will deliver a number of benefits, including cost and efficiency savings worth 100 million pounds ($128 million) over five years as it takes advantage of common procurement, production and distribution networks. It will also see Carlsberg take over Britvic's bottling agreement with PepsiCo (PEP.O), opens new tab. Carlsberg already bottles PepsiCo drinks in several markets and there is scope to add more geographies in future, Aarup-Andersen said. arlsberg halted share buy backs on Monday as a result of the deal. Chief financial officer Ulrica Fearn said these would resume once Carlsberg reaches its revised target for net debt of 2.5 times EBITDA, from 3.5 times currently - a goal it expects to meet in 2027. "Whilst this represents a shift in the strategy away from organic top- and bottom-line growth and consistent returns to shareholders, we view it as a relatively low risk transaction with attractive financials," Jefferies analysts said in a note. Carlsberg also said on Monday it will buy out UK pub group Marston's (MARS.L), opens new tab from a joint venture for 206 million pounds. That will give it full ownership of the newly formed Carlsberg Britvic after the deal. ($1 = 0.7805 pounds) Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with Reuters Econ World. Sign up here. Reporting by Stine Jacobsen, Yadarisa Shabong and Emma Rumney Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, Rashmi Aich, David Goodman and David Evans