JOHANNESBURG, July 9 (Reuters) - The South African rand was little changed in early trade on Tuesday, as markets awaited the Federal Reserve chair's testimony in Washington and U.S. June inflation data for clues on the country's future interest rate path. At 0644 GMT, the rand traded at 18.1300 against the dollar , near its previous close of 18.1175. "The rand has opened marginally softer at 18.13 this morning, and we expect trading to remain range-bound in the short term," said Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE. Markets will listen to the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony in Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday and look to June inflation data out of the U.S. later this week for hints on the future interest rate path in the world's biggest economy. "Analysts will be gauging the Fed's response to the recent softer U.S. economic and labour data, with markets already starting to price in two rate cuts this year," Cilliers added. The risk-sensitive rand often takes cues from global drivers like U.S. economic policy in the absence of major local factors. South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was slightly stronger in early deals, with the yield down 1 basis point at 9.74%.

LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Insurers are nervous that militant attacks or AI-generated fake images could derail the Paris Olympics, risking event cancellations and millions of dollars in claims. Insurers faced losses after the 2020 Tokyo Olympics were postponed for a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, wars in Ukraine and Gaza and a spate of elections this year, including in France, have driven up fears of politically-motivated violence at high-profile global events. The Olympics take place in Paris from July 26-Aug 11 and the Paralympics from Aug 28-Sept 8. German insurer Allianz (ALVG.DE), opens new tab is insurance partner for the Games. Other insurers, such as the Lloyd's of London (SOLYD.UL) market, are also providing cover. "We are all aware of the geopolitical situation the world is in," said Eike Buergel, head of Allianz's Olympic and Paralympic programme. "We are convinced that the IOC (International Olympic Committee), Paris 2024 and the national organising committees, together with the French authorities, are taking the right measures when it comes to challenges on the ground."

US politicians are advocating for steep tariffs, echoing the protectionist Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922. Despite potential international retaliation, risks to global economic rules and a shift from post-World War II principles, US politicians have promised to increase trade barriers against China, causing concerns for the sustainability of global economic harmony. A century ago, the Republican Congress passed the Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922. This post-World War-I effort to protect the US from German competition and rescue America's own businesses from falling prices sparked a global wave of tariff hikes. While long forgotten, echoes of Fordney-McCumber now reverberate across the US political landscape. Once again, politicians are grasping the tariff as a magic talisman against its own economic ills and to contain the rise of China. The Democratic Party of the 1920s opposed tariffs, because duties are harmful to consumers and farmers, but today both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump favor national delivery through protectionism. Trump promised that his second term, if elected, would impose 60-percent tariffs on everything arriving from China and 10-percent tariffs on imports from the rest of the world, apparently including the imports covered by 14 free trade agreements with America's 20 partners. He initially promised 100-percent tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs), but when Biden declared that he was hiking tariffs on EVs from China to 100-percent, Trump raised the ante to 200-percent. On May 14, 2024, the White House imposed tariffs ranging from 25 percent (on items such as steel, aluminum and lithium batteries) to 50 percent (semiconductors, solar cells, syringes and needles) and 100 percent (electric vehicles) on Chinese imports. US government officials offer "national security" and "supply chain vulnerability" as the justification for levying high tariffs. To deflect worries about inflation, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai declared, "first of all, I think that that link, in terms of tariffs to prices, has been largely debunked." Contrary findings by the United States International Trade Commission and a number of distinguished economists, as well as Biden's own 2019 statement criticizing Trump's tariffs - "Trump doesn't get the basics. He thinks tariffs are being paid by China… [but] the American people are paying his tariffs" - forced Tai's office to wind back her declaration. The fact that prohibitive barriers to imports of solar cells, batteries and EVs will delay the green economy carries zero political weight with Trump and little with Biden. Nor does either of them worry about the prospects of Chinese retaliation and damage to the fabric of global economic rules. Historical lessons - unanticipated consequences of the foolish Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922 and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 - are seen as irrelevant by the candidates and their advisers. The US' lurch from its post-World War II free trade principles offers China a golden opportunity. On the world stage, China will espouse open free trade and investment. China will encourage EV and battery firms to establish plants in Europe, Brazil, Mexico and elsewhere, essentially daring the US to damage its own alliances by restricting third country imports containing Chinese components. Whether the fabric of global economic rules that has delivered astounding prosperity to the world will survive through the 21st century remains to be seen. Much will depend on the decisions of other large economic powers, not only China but also the European Union and Japan, as well as middle powers, such as Australia, Brazil, Chile, ASEAN and South Korea. Their actions and reactions will reshape the rules of the 21st century. If others follow America down this costly path, the world will become less prosperous and vastly more unpredictable. If they resist, the US risks being diminished and more isolated. The author is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

The latest trade monitor released recently by the World Trade Organization shows that between mid-October 2023 and mid-May 2024, WTO members continued to introduce more trade promotion measures than trade restrictive measures. The WTO said it was an important signal of members' commitment to keep trade flowing amid the current geopolitical uncertainty. According to WTO statistics, during the monitoring period, WTO members adopted 169 trade promotion measures on commodities, more than the 99 trade restrictive measures introduced. Most of the measures are aimed at imports. Commenting on the findings, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that despite the challenging geopolitical environment, this latest trade monitoring report highlights the resilience of world trade. Even against the backdrop of rising protectionist pressures and signs of economic fragmentation, governments around the world are taking meaningful steps to liberalize and boost trade. This demonstrates the benefits of trade on people's purchasing power, business competitiveness and price stability. The WTO monitoring also identified significant new developments in economic support measures. Subsidies as part of industrial policy are increasing rapidly, especially in areas related to climate change and national security.

HONG KONG, July 9 (Reuters) - Nornickel (GMKN.MM), opens new tab is in talks with China Copper to form a joint venture that would allow the Russian mining giant to move its entire copper smelting base to China, four sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. If the move goes ahead, it would mark Russia's first uprooting of a domestic plant since the U.S. and Britain banned metal exchanges from accepting new aluminium, copper and nickel produced by Russia. It also means Nornickel's copper will be produced within the country where it is most consumed. Nornickel said in April it planned to close its Arctic facility and build a new plant in China with an unnamed partner. Executives at China Copper, owned by the world's largest aluminium producer Chinalco (601600.SS), opens new tab, flew to Moscow in June to discuss a possible joint venture, one of the sources said, adding that details of the structure and investment are still under discussion. Nornickel declined to comment. Chinalco and China Copper did not respond to requests for comment via email and phone. Sites being considered in China include Fangchenggang and Qinzhou in the Guangxi region, the two sources said, with another source saying Qingdao in Shandong province was also possible. A decision on a joint venture will be made over the next few months, a fifth source said, adding that Nornickel's Chinese output is likely to be consumed domestically. The new facility will have capacity to produce 450,000 tonnes of copper annually, two of the sources said, amounting to around 2% of global mined supplies estimated at around 22 million metric tons this year. Nornickel, which according to its annual report produced 425,400 tonnes of refined copper last year, processed all of its concentrates in 2023 at the Arctic plant, its only operation producing finished copper suitable for delivery to exchanges.